BABA's performance exceeded expectations, but the stock price is difficult to improve, when can Chinese stocks get out of the bottom? (follow, answer questions, send 66 points)

On the evening of August fourth$Alibaba (BABA.US)$Announced the results of the second quarter of this year (fiscal year 2023 Q1).

As one of the most closely watched Chinese stocks, the market has made numerous deductions about BABA's performance and prepared for the worst. BABA's revenue is generally expected to decline for the first time in history compared with the same period last year.

After the announcement of the actual performanceBABA's performance in the second quarter exceeded market expectations, and both revenue and net profit were not as pessimistic as the market imagined.

Performance is good + before the dual major listing of the good, BABA's share price should be injected a shot in the arm, but BABA's share price did not soar, how is this going on?When can the Chinese stocks represented by BABA get out of the bottom?? Let's talk about it.

01 both revenue and profit exceeded expectations. BABA's share price rose and fell back.

In the second quarter of this year, BABA's revenue was 205.56 billion yuan, basically the same as last year, slightly exceeding market expectations of 203.97 billion. The net profit of homing was 22.74 billion, a sharp drop of 50% compared with the same period last year.However, it significantly exceeded market expectations by 18.12 billion. The earnings per share was 11.73 yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 10.39 yuan.

For the sharp decline in profits, BABA said it was mainly due to the epidemic.From April to May this year, due to the disruption of logistics, online shopping orders dropped significantly, resulting in a decline in BABA's higher profit margin customer management income, which finally dragged down the profit performance.

But we've said it many times before.The stock price is the reaction of the market expectation. To evaluate the performance, the most important thing is to compare with the market expectation. This time BABA's net profit has greatly exceeded market expectations, which can be said to be relatively good.At one point, its US stock price rose by more than 7%, driving the overall rise of Chinese stocks, but then fell back, closing up less than 2%.

02 apply for dual major listing in Hong Kong or capital injection

In addition to the positive financial results, a few days agoBABA also made a big move to boost confidence in the capital market.

BABA announced on July 26 that he would apply to change the listing status in Hong Kong from a secondary listing to a dual major listing, which is expected to take effect by the end of 2022.

Here, let's first popularize the concept of dual major listing.Dual major listing means that both capital markets are the first place to be listed.For example, if you are already listed on the US market and then listed in Hong Kong, the rules to be followed are exactly the same as those of companies listed only in Hong Kong.

The main difference between the dual main listing and the secondary listing is that the stock of the former is unable to circulate across the market, and the stock price is relatively independent, which may lead to price difference. The secondary listing refers to the company listing the same type of stocks in the two places, which can realize the cross-market circulation of shares. At the same time, dual major listed companies will have the opportunity to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, while secondary listed companies will not meet the requirements for Hong Kong Stock Connect.

Previously, the companies we are familiar with listed on the A shares and Hong Kong stocks have actually achieved dual major listings.$XPeng (XPEV.US)$、$Li Auto (LI.US)$、$Zhihu (ZH.US)$、$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$The dual major listing of Hong Kong and US stocks has been realized, while$BeiGene (ONC.US)$What's more, it has achieved the main listing in the US stock market, Hong Kong stock market and A-share market at the same time.

If BABA can successfully achieve a dual major listing in the Hong Kong stock market, one of the important benefits isThere is a high probability that it can be incorporated into the Hong Kong stock market, thus ushering in the investment of incremental funds in the mainland.Reference to Hong Kong Stock Exchange holding$TENCENT (00700.HK)$、$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$The stock size of companies with large market capitalizationIn the future, mainland funds may hold 5% of BABA's 10% stake, with a capital size of hundreds of billions of Hong Kong dollars.

03 after the pre-extraction of the stock price of BABA under pressure, when can Chinese stocks come out of the bottom?

The two major advantages of exceeding expectations and applying for a dual major listing will not move BABA's share price.It is most likely due to the influence of "pre-picked cards".

On Friday, two days after BABA announced his application for a dual major listing, BABA was added to the "pre-picked" list by SEC. If the company is on the list for three consecutive years, the company will face the risk of delisting from the United States.

BABA was included in the "pre-picked card" list, originally within the market expectations, it was only a matter of time. Before that, nearly 160 Chinese-listed stocks have been listed in batches, more than half of the total number of Chinese-listed stocks.In the future, almost all Chinese stocks will also be included, and whether they can remain listed in the United States for a long time depends largely on the regulatory communication between the two countries.

However, BABA's share price still fell by more than 10% on the night it was listed, on the one hand, it may be due to the influence of market panic, on the other hand, it may be because some institutional funds cannot invest in securities on the "pre-delimited" list, passively selling BABA shares, thus increasing the selling pressure.

Over the past year or so, Chinese stocks as a whole have fallen sharply, while BABA has also fallen 70 per cent at a high level. Some time ago, Chinese stocks rebounded, but recently, driven by the BABA pre-withdrawal incident and the well-known risk aversion, Chinese stocks began to bottom out again. that,When can Chinese stocks get out of the bottom?

There is a market view that Chinese stocks as a whole are in a positive situation.

First, the previous industry negative policies of US-listed stocks one after another have dealt a serious blow to market confidence.In recent months, the regulatory wind has obviously changed, and regulatory policies are mainly to encourage healthy development.

Second, the domestic economy has come out of the worst period in the second quarter, economic and consumer confidence will rebound in the second half of this year, and the overall performance of US-listed stocks may also recover.The share price of Chinese stocks may reflect the performance in advance, which is also a possible opportunity to rebound.

Third, the recent risk aversion has also passed the most concentrated period.Overall market sentiment began to ease.

Fourth, after a long period of decline, the valuation of Chinese stocks has also reached the lowest range.The overall selling pressure is also much smaller.

Overall, in the case of empty profits, Chinese stocks may have more opportunities than risks, and there is less room for further decline. But because there is always a sword of Damocles hanging over his headOnly when the regulatory negotiations between the two countries on Chinese stocks have made substantial progress, Chinese stocks may usher in a real rebound or even a reversal of the market.

After watching today's content, do you have a better understanding of the market of US-listed stocks?So now start the challenge to get points.

Which of the following options is good for US-listed stocks?

a. Policy tightening

b. Risk aversion is on the rise.

c. A marked recovery in performance

You are welcome to give your answer in the comments section and explain why.

Still want to test the ability to invest in stocks? To challenge our medal test and get your study badge. The screenshot who answered the above questions correctly and posted the screenshot who received the stock medal.We select 3 people to send 66 points.

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