新能源產業鏈全走低，賽道股熄火了？
How did the 'Ning Wang' and 'Di Wang' emerge from the three electric domain?
On June 10th, BYD$BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ)$With a market cap surpassing trillion, ranking among the top three in global automotive market cap, becoming the first whole vehicle enterprise in China to enter the trillion market cap club.
On July 4th, BYD announced its sales for June and the first half of the year. Its monthly car sales reached 0.134 million units, with a cumulative sales of 0.641 million units in the first half of the year, surpassing Tesla successfully.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$With sales volume of 0.564 million vehicles in the first half of the year, it has become the global champion in new energy vehicle sales.
'The only domestic new energy vehicle company that can independently produce the three-electric system' is one of BYD's core capabilities, which is also a point that its users often talk proudly about.
Different from the core three components of traditional fuel vehicles - engine, transmission, and chassis, the core of new energy vehicles is the three-electric system - battery, electric motor, and electronic control.
The transformation of the structure components of the three-electric system of new energy vehicles has provided an excellent opportunity for the Chinese automotive industry to break through numerous foreign patents and industry barriers.
Power batteries, Chinese companies rank among the top
Starting with the secondary battery business such as mobile phone charging, BYD emerged early in the power battery race, although it was surpassed by Contemporary Amperex Technology later, it is still one of the leading players globally.
According to the report data of the '2022 Global Development Research on New Energy Vehicle Power Batteries' released by EO Intelligence, among global power battery manufacturers in 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology$Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ)$, LG Energy Solution, Panasonic.$Panasonic Holdings (ADR) (PCRFY.US)$Ranked top three in installation volume with 96.7GWh, 60.2GWh, and 36.1GWh respectively. BYD's annual installation volume is 33.7GWh, ranking fourth.
In 2021, in the Chinese market, Contemporary Amperex Technology and BYD jointly occupy nearly 70% of the market share.$The Concept of the Ningde Era (LIST0398.SH)$The new energy wave has hit, and Chinese battery manufacturers such as BYD and Contemporary Amperex Technology have played a dominant role in the field of power batteries, firmly establishing themselves in the global automotive industry's new round of transformation.
Contemporary Amperex Technology, formerly known as ATL (Amperex Technology Limited), is also a lithium battery manufacturer whose main customers include overseas clients such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nokia.
In China's domestic market, Chinese power battery manufacturers have an absolute advantage. Looking overseas, Contemporary Amperex Technology and foreign manufacturers such as LG New Energy are engaged in close competition in overseas markets, making efforts to compete for market space in 2025 and beyond. Technological innovation is the core competence of power battery companies in this competition.
From the perspective of manufacturing cost for electric vehicles, the cost of the three-electric system accounts for almost 50% of the total vehicle cost. Among the three-electric systems, the battery manufacturing cost accounts for more than three-quarters.
Power batteries, as the "source of power" for new energy vehicles, are closely related to factors such as vehicle range, product experience, and policy subsidies.
As the "power source" of new energy vehicles, power batteries are closely related to aspects such as vehicle range, product experience, and policy subsidies.
Yiou Research divides the power battery industry chain into three parts in the "2022 Global New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Development Research" report, namely upstream, midstream, and downstream.
The upstream consists of raw materials and components related enterprises such as cathode, anode, and the midstream includes companies like Contemporary Amperex Technology, LG, BYD, and other power battery enterprises, while the downstream mainly involves the passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle OEMs.
Power batteries were initially a subdivision of lithium batteries, and China has formed a complete manufacturing industry chain in the field of 3C lithium batteries early on. The competitive landscape of power battery manufacturers has basically been established, with the top ten global power battery manufacturers holding a combined market share of 91.2%.
In terms of material innovation, power battery manufacturers mainly focus on cathode materials as they account for around 40% of the cost of power batteries.
Currently, the main cathode materials are lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium.
Lithium iron phosphate battery has abundant raw material resources and is superior to ternary lithium batteries in terms of cost and cycle life. Ternary lithium batteries, on the other hand, have higher specific capacity and faster charging speed, but at a higher cost.
The development of the new generation of sodium-ion batteries has been put on the agenda by companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology. If used to replace lithium iron phosphate, it can reduce the proportion of cathode materials cost from 40% to 17% of the entire vehicle.
However, the current sodium-ion battery technology is not mature enough, with lower energy density, which limits its application to low-speed vehicles.
In addition, based on the innovation of electrolyte materials, solid-state and semi-solid-state batteries have gradually come to the forefront.
The battery forms have also undergone many changes. BYD's blade battery and Tesla's large cylindrical battery are both star products with no equal for a while.
Especially this year, the topic of the 4680 large cylindrical battery continues to ferment. In addition to Tesla, CATL, Panasonic, EVE Energy, and Contemporary Amperex Technology have all deployed in this field.
EIO Intelligence believes that the innovative structural design of the 4680 large cylindrical power battery with 'no pole tabs' effectively solves the heating problem, making it possible to mass-produce high-nickel, low-cobalt, or high-nickel, cobalt-free batteries. EIO Intelligence predicts that by 2025, the market share of cylindrical power batteries will reach around 30%.
Overall, in the specific segment of power batteries, Chinese power battery enterprises firmly occupy the top tier and have made layouts for future technological research and development.
Contemporary Amperex Technology sits at the top, but the emergence of newcomers like Honeycomb Energy adds new strength to the continuous development of Chinese power batteries.
I have resources, you have technology, but we hurt each other.
Compared to the engines of traditional fuel vehicles, the driving motor of electric vehicle directly converts the battery's electrical energy into mechanical energy, serving as the direct source of the vehicle's power.
According to the data from Contemporary Amperex Technology, in the first five months of 2022, for the top 15 Chinese new energy passenger vehicle market, the leading motor supplier under Byd, Frdite Power, occupies the first place with a market share of 26.32%, while Tesla ranks third with a market share of 7.94%.
The second-ranked Founder Motor is also the leading third-party motor supplier in China, with cooperation with top domestic OEMs including Great Wall and Geely.
In the Chinese market, domestic motor suppliers occupy the top tier, with Byd, SAIC, and others already having the capability of independent research and development, and assembly plants. Third-party suppliers like Founder Motor and Jingjin Electric, have the ability to produce new energy vehicle motors that are comparable to international advanced levels.
The drivetrain motors for new energy vehicles can be divided into four main categories based on overall technology: direct current motor, alternating current asynchronous motor, permanent magnet synchronous motor, and switched reluctance motor.
Among these, direct current and switched reluctance motors are gradually being phased out due to technological defects. Alternating current asynchronous motors and permanent magnet synchronous motors are currently the main types of motors for new energy vehicles.
Alternating current asynchronous motors are more commonly used in European and American vehicle models, with Tesla being the main representative. In China, the most common type of drivetrain motor is the permanent magnet synchronous motor.
Compared to alternating current asynchronous motors, permanent magnet synchronous motors are smaller in size, lower in energy consumption, and have high energy conversion efficiency. Over 90% of the new energy vehicles on the market use permanent magnet synchronous motors. Some Tesla models also started to use permanent magnet synchronous motors.
For permanent magnet synchronous motors, China has a unique advantage - rare earth resources.
The main raw materials for the core components of permanent magnet synchronous motors, stator and rotor, are neodymium iron boron. Neodymium iron boron permanent magnets have the advantages of high efficiency, miniaturization, and lightweight.
This material can only be extracted from rare earths. Public data shows that China occupies over 60% of the world's rare earth production capacity and over 85% of the neodymium iron boron production capacity.
With the further development of China's new energy vehicle market, the production of neodymium iron boron is continuously increasing.
On April 29th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a notice stating that the production of major rare earth functional materials in China maintained stable growth in the first quarter of 2022. Among them, in terms of rare earth magnetic materials, the production of sintered neodymium iron boron blanks was 0.0685 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 30%; the production of bonded neodymium iron boron was 2,520 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20%.
China has a complete rare earth industry chain. For the sintered neodymium iron boron permanent magnet material industry, a group of Chinese manufacturers such as Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan and JL Mag Rare-Earth have already been developed.
It should be noted that most of the relevant high-end technology patents for sintered neodymium iron boron are held by foreign companies such as Hitachi Metals. Hitachi Metals holds over 600 patents for sintered neodymium iron boron, and Chinese manufacturers like Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan can only export their products overseas after obtaining patent authorization from Hitachi Metals.
China and foreign companies have formed an awkward situation where they are mutually dependent in terms of resources and technology.
However, in recent years, China has made significant progress in the manufacturing technology of neodymium iron boron magnets and has also made breakthroughs in production equipment. The production of sintered neodymium iron boron magnets has achieved localization in terms of fast quenching strip casting and hydrogen decrepitation powder making processes and equipment.
Foreign host manufacturers want to reduce their reliance on rare earth materials by developing new technologies or researching permanent magnet motors with lower rare earth content. Volkswagen, BMW, and others have all made attempts.
Pain and catching up
In August of last year, BYD released the third-generation pure electric exclusive platform e3.0, with a more integrated eight-in-one structure for its electric drive system.
BYD's eight-in-one electric drive assembly includes the drive motor, gearbox, motor controller, high and low voltage DC converter, bidirectional onboard charger, high-voltage distribution box, battery manager, and vehicle controller.
Its overall performance has increased power density by 20% compared to the previous generation, reduced the weight of the whole vehicle by 15%, and achieved a system comprehensive efficiency of 89%.
Broadly speaking, the electronic control system includes the vehicle controller, battery management system, and motor controller. Its core components include inverters, drivers, power sources, controllers, protection modules, heat dissipation systems, and signal detection modules.
In recent years, the integration of the drive motor, motor controller, and gearbox into a "three-in-one" system, and the "multi-in-one" electric drive system including BMS and VCU, have become the main development trend of new energy vehicles.
The original components of the new energy vehicle power system were "fighting on their own", but such integrated electric drive systems have been optimized in terms of overall volume, energy loss, and are conducive to the standardization of new energy vehicle power systems.
这也要求车企更高额的前期研发投入，以及更加精密的技术与生产标准，对车企与供应商之间的协作能力也提出考验。但其带来的轻量化、更低的成本、更高的效率等诸多优势，以及对车企平台化设计等方面的助力，注定让集成化电驱系统成为车企们争相抢夺的“香饽饽”。
当前量产的纯电动汽车领域中，“三合一”电驱系统已经成为主流。
针对电驱系统集成化的研发，国内外相关企业没有明显的“时差”。国外特斯拉、博世、大陆博格华纳等主机厂或供应商均推出了电驱动一体化总成产品。
NE时代数据显示，2022年1-5月中国新能源乘用车市场电驱动系统配套企业装机量top15榜单中，比亚迪弗迪动力、特斯拉两大厂商以23.92%和13.89%的市占率稳居前二，但其主要用于自供。
随着新能源汽车电子电气架构逐渐走向域控制和中央控制，作为动力域的核心，集成化已成为电驱总成技术升级的必然趋势。
电机控制器，电源管理系统BMS等电控系统组成成分，作为新能源汽车的核心控制板块，是主机厂的重点集成对象。
In fact, compared to China's development in the battery and motor fields, the degree of localization of domestic electronic control systems is still lower. The main reason is that Chinese automakers and suppliers are being choked at the core component sectors such as IGBT.
In the entire electronic control industry chain, the most critical part is the upstream component supply, the core module of the power inverter: IGBT (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor), which can account for 40-50% of the total cost of the electronic control system.
According to Yole's prediction, the new energy vehicle IGBT market will develop rapidly at a compound annual growth rate of 23% from 2020 to 2026. By 2026, the market size of IGBT for new energy vehicles will reach 1.7 billion US dollars.
But for a long time, high-end IGBT mainstream devices have been dominated by foreign manufacturers such as Infineon, Mitsubishi, ABB, and others.$Mitsubishi Electric (ADR) (MIELY.US)$Although domestic manufacturers such as Starpower Semiconductor and BYD have emerged, there is still a certain gap compared to leading companies like Infineon in terms of technology.
However, this gap is gradually narrowing. Starpower Semiconductor successfully developed a new generation of automotive-grade 650V/750V/1200V IGBT chips based on the seventh-generation Trench Field Stop technology in 2021 and began mass production in 2022.
Regarding the more promising third-generation SiC semiconductors, on June 20, BYD Semiconductor launched a brand new 1200V 1040A SiC power module.
Conclusion
With the development of technologies such as the three-electric system and autonomous driving, China's new energy vehicles are heading towards the world, giving rise to leading companies such as BYD and Contemporary Amperex Technology. However, amidst the blooming flowers, there are also thorns.
Under the booming wave of new energy vehicles, BYD is just a glimpse of the rapid development of the Chinese new energy vehicle market.
Chinese automakers need to continue to leverage their market advantages and recognize their disadvantages. Although core technologies like semiconductors cannot be developed overnight and there are challenges in expanding overseas markets, companies like BYD are still persevering, while Contemporary Amperex Technology is aggressively competing with LG New Energy in overseas markets.
Not being intoxicated by temporary joys, this is the best image that Chinese automakers present to the market.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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