Core ideas:
1、Through the “innovation+merger+diversification” strategy, Thermo Fisher has become a leading global scientific services company.The company has rapidly grown into a leader in the global scientific service industry through continuous “innovation+merger+diversification” strategy in the past 20 years. Currently, the company's four major businesses are developing collaboratively, gradually forming an “integrated scientific service” development through upstream and downstream extensions.
2、The concentration of the global life sciences industry is rapidly increasing, and Thermo Fisher's leading edge is clear.The company broadens high barriers and business ceilings through epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, and continuously drives the rapid development of downstream drug research and development. Currently, the life science business is the business with the highest operating profit margin, and it will continue to be one of the key businesses in the company's strategic layout in the future.
3、The in vitro diagnostic industry market shows an oligopoly pattern. Thermo Fly has mainly benefited from the COVID-19 reagent business in the past two years.In 2015-2019, the global in vitro diagnosis market increased from 56.7 billion US dollars to 68.8 billion US dollars, with a compound growth rate of 4.95%, and the market share of the top 7 companies reached 47%. Thermo Fly's professional diagnosis business benefits from strong demand for COVID-19 diagnosis services. It is expected that global competition for COVID-19 diagnostic reagents will intensify in 2022, and the professional diagnosis business will decline somewhat.
4、Overseas manufacturers in the analytical instrument market monopolize the middle and high-end markets, and the Thermo Fly product matrix is perfect.The global analytical instrument market is growing steadily, and overseas manufacturers monopolize the middle and high-end markets. Thermo Fly's analytical instrument product matrix is perfect, showing a strong competitive advantage in the field of segmentation.
5、The penetration rate of the global CXO industry continues to increase, and Thermo Fisher is ranked in the TOP10.The global CXO market is also increasing. It is estimated that the global CRO market will reach 109.3 billion US dollars and the CDMO market will reach 85.6 billion US dollars by 2025. Thermo Fly ranked in the top 10 in the world through the acquisition of international CRO giant PPD in 2021.
6、The company's four major businesses are developing collaboratively, and it is expected that the company's net interest rate will remain around 25% in the next few years.According to our estimates, the company's net profit is expected to be 10.6 billion US dollars, 11 billion US dollars, and 12.5 billion US dollars respectively from 2022 to 2024; considering that the company is still a leading company in the life science business and the barriers are high; however, currently considering the uncertain global economy, we are conservatively giving the company PE
25X, which is expected to correspond to the corresponding stock prices in 2022 to 2024$674 per share, $710 per share, $801 per share。

Risk warning:Global economic crisis; new product development risks; increased market competition.



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