Is Middle Ga Back to Middle School? 2022 Can “Ali Men” buck the trend and return the king?! Some are afraid, others are greedy! (66 points for following and commenting)

$Alibaba (BABA.US)$It went up again before the market!

Since the new year, Ali has yet to fall. It seems that it is about to wipe out the decline of 2021 and prepare to stage the movie The Return of the King.

At the same time, his middle “brothers” also seem to be working secretly.$TENCENT (00700.HK)$$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$$JD.com (JD.US)$By then, most of them were rising in unison. However, the US technology stocks next door fluctuated abnormally after the New Year, and a different scene occurred.

On the other side,Meng Ge, Duan Yongping, and many bosses have sent out a signal to “cut the bottom” and buy the most! Munger increased Ali's position 3 times last year, and Duan Yongping also directly said “I bought some Tencent and Ali today,” and later posted a single sale and put it up to read Pinduoduo.

So in 2022, will the Chinese generals get rid of the “Chinese bully” reputation? In the current environment, can investors reverse the market and cheat Ali's bottom?Today, Finance Academy would like to discuss the company's own fundamentals, investors, and macro perspectives with friends.

Finally, we will also leave a topic. I hope mooer will participate in the discussion and contribute your views. Right,We will also select and like mooer follow, like, and commentThe top 3 were given away the astronaut Futubull figures, selectedLike 4-9 people and get 66 points。

1. Although it is falling, it is strong!

Let's take Ali as an example to look at the fundamentals of China's financial reports.

Ali's ups and downs almost began with his antitrust policy in 2021.Indeed, after facing a series of anti-monopoly regulations, Alibaba's business performance fluctuated to a certain extent. According to the financial report for the third quarter of 2021, revenue of 200.69 billion yuan maintained a steady increase of 29%, but there was still a slight gap with market expectations of 206.17 billion yuan; however, due to weak domestic consumption and increased industry competition, if Gaoxin's retail merger was excluded, revenue for a single quarter was 180.438 billion yuan, and the year-on-year revenue growth rate dropped slightly to 16%. At the same time, Alibaba also lowered its 2022 revenue guide to 20%-23% after adjustment.

However, Ali's core retail business Taobao, Tmall, and Taobao maintained a high growth rateAs of the third quarter of 2021, the monthly active users (MAU) of Alibaba e-commerce reached 0.946 billion, an increase of 65 million over the same period of the previous year; on the other hand, the proportion of new consumers from underdeveloped regions is getting higher and higher. Taotte continues to record strong growth in the number of users. Annual active consumers have exceeded 0.24 billion, achieving a 200% year-on-year increase.It can be seen that Alibaba is sinking at an accelerated pace, and the sinking market space is huge, and it has also achieved certain results.

At the same time,Ali's cross-border and global retail businessRevenue grew strongly 33% year over year, Lazada's quarterly order volume increased 82% year over year, and Trendyol's quarterly GMV increased 80% year over year.Another growth point. The revenue of the cloud computing business increased 33% year-on-year in the current quarter, quarterly adjusted EBITA increased 16% month-on-month.The profitability of cloud computing continues to increase.

Indeed, under the influence of policies and weak consumption in China,Ali's report card and Tencent next door seem to have disappointed investors. The fall in stock prices is normal。However, school bullies are still school bullies, and we can't deny the fact that “good students” rank high because of a decline in short-term results.

However, after Ali's experienced a series of declines, in comparison, the “Ali Men” valuation is already very cheap.Ali's latest price-earnings ratio is only 18.38 times that of Apple next door, less than 1/20 of Tesla's , This is rare in history; Chinese people are really already very cheap.

2. Investors are afraid, but bosses and companies are greedy

Recently, Munger, a good friend of stock god Buffett, continued to “bottom” hold 60,2060 shares of Alibaba through its DailyJournalCorp. This is after the 1st and 3rd quarters of 2021It was the third big purchase, and this time the increase was close to doubling. Although Munger's holding Ali has lost more than 40%, the bosses are buying more and more, and their confidence seems undiminished at all.

Many people question Munger's operation and think that his sword is old. But if you read Munger's books or quotes carefully, you may find that Munger's “love” for Ali is not a simple love at first sight.

Very simply, Ali's 200+ share price, which is at its peak of 319, has dropped by nearly 1/3. Compared with the price-earnings ratio of Amazon, a company of the same type, Ali's price-earnings ratio is also close to one-half.The entire market is oversold. Although the stock price may continue to fall, the “cheap” Ali judges the company's value through comprehensive factors such as fundamentals, growth, and valuation, and is still worth buying in the eyes of Munger, so it is in line with the value investment strategy and chooses to hold it for a long time.

In the same case, Duan Yongping's answer was, “Something that costs 10 yuan is crying and shouting to sell it to you for 1 yuan. Why do you have to be brave?” He used to buy NetEase, but now he seems to be using the same method to buy Tencent Ali and watch Pinduoduo.

Indeed, while the stock price is likely to continue to fall, Munger and Duan Yongping still choose to keep increasing their positions instead of leaving the market. We can't always buy at the lowest point and buy when it falls. This is Munger's action to tell you the answer to the operation after choosing a good stock.

Not only the bosses, but companies such as Tencent and Xiaomi are also using repurchases to continuously “increase” their stock positions, setting off a wave of buybacks.

Since August 19, 2021, Tencent has repurchased its own shares 22 times in a row, and Xiaomi has repurchased shares 33 times, and just two days ago, Tencent has taken steps to repurchase shares, which can almost be considered stable and holding its stock price above 400.

According to statistics, 189 Hong Kong stock companies made repurchases in 2021, the highest in history.

3. China is releasing water in 2022

Yesterday《Downsizing is here, and the turmoil is getting worse! Instead of China downgrading, what is the fate of the Chinese and US markets in 2022?》(Click on the blue letters to view) In the article, we mentioned that the downsizing will hurt overvalued stocks, and value stocks may attract more attention. At the same time, in order to “hedge” the impact of the US downsizing, China chose to downgrade in 2022, and put forward a demand for “stabilizing the letter and seeking progress in stability” for economic work in 2022. The reflection in monetary policy is likely to be a relaxed cycle that kicks off with the downsizing of the US.

The purpose is to stimulate economic and consumption growth. In this context, it may be easier for Chinese generalists to hand over high-scoring surveys on revenue growth.

At the same time, in order to deal with the risks of anti-monopoly policies, the Chinese generals almost equally chose to move closer to “common prosperity” and shrink the map. The reduction of Tencent's holdings in JD also showed that Tencent is actively embracing the policy and ushering in new changes.

IV. Small suggestions

1. Allocate assets well, control positions, and put an end to a single stud. Only when you have money can you continue to enter the market and reduce costs.
2. Don't be delusional about trying to buy at the lowest point. What the bosses can't do, why are we hurting ourselves, choosing a good target, buying at a low price, and waiting for a return. This is a value investment strategy.

The opinions in this article do not constitute any investment advice. Investors are requested to judge the risks themselves.

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