This Federal Reserve interest rate meeting was a fully anticipated meeting.
① Raise interest rates by 25 bp and remove the phrase of continuing interest rate hikes; ② properly discuss the possibility of suspending interest rate hikes; ③ monetary policy remains flexible and data-dependent on inflation; ④ there are large internal differences over the recession.
As inflation continues to fall this year and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike comes to an end, the market has gradually moved ahead of the Federal Reserve, and it is difficult for interest rate meetings to shock the market like last year. Powell's statement also failed to define dovish or hawkish, because both speech and action were within expectations.
Since the banking crisis, the market has chosen to bet that the Fed will stop raising interest rates until now, and FedWatch also shows that the probability of maintaining the interest rate decision at the next meeting is 95%. The three major stock indexes in the equity market declined, more like capital behavior expected to redeem profits, and had less impact on the future market.
It is worth mentioning ④. Powell revealed that there are internal differences over the recession. Considering that interest rate hikes have reached the end, it is implied that future economic levels will gradually replace inflation as the dominant force in determining monetary policy. Reporters' inquiries about interest rate cuts have already appeared during this press conference. Although Powell denied it, there will only be more and more topics about interest rate cuts in the future.
Although the policy has been fully anticipated, the fact that it cannot be changed is that monetary policy has reached an inflection point and a pivot signal has appeared.
At the same time, it also means that the US economy has reached an inflection point. According to the Federal Reserve's judgment on the slight economic decline in Q4, economic indicators will slow down more drastically in Q3, and the US will lose jobs...