If there are no surprises, this Friday (March 24) Meituan will release its 2022 Q4 and annual earnings report.
Before that, we would like to compile and forecast quarterly earnings data, and at the same time simply sort out and forecast the progress of various key businesses — especially local life and instant retail — to share with you our recent observations and thoughts on Meituan. I hope it will have some reference effect for you.
I. Specific business data tracking and forecasting
1. Takeout
Affected by the spread of the epidemic and prevention and control at that time, takeout orders grew slowly in October and November in the fourth quarter, with an average daily order growth rate of about 6%. Although infections increased after the epidemic was released in December, takeout regained vitality. The average monthly daily order volume increased to a high growth rate of about 15%, exceeding expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of orders for the entire fourth quarter was about 10%, and revenue was about 10 pp faster than the order volume, maintaining a healthy level of about 20%. The performance is expected to exceed expectations.
2. In-store wine trip
The in-store wine tourism business was hit by the spread and prevention of the epidemic (October/November) and widespread infections after liberalization — consumers were unable to travel at home due to widespread infections, and businesses also suspended operations after widespread infections. The overall impact was greater than takeout. GTV in the fourth quarter fell by about 11 ppp compared to last year, and the revenue decline was roughly similar. GTV fell by about 21 pp. month-on-month, but the impact was already reflected in market expectations, and the performance was in line with expectations.
3. Meituan flash sale
The performance of Meituan flash sales greatly exceeded expectations, as consumers had a stronger demand to stock up during the pandemic lockdown...