New year, new atmosphere.
During the Lunar New Year period,The US PCE data was released in December, and the Federal Reserve's most popular PCE data was released, continuing the downward trend. Among them, the core PCE is already below the policy interest rate, and this is also considered a sign of an important victory against inflation:
• In December, the PCE price index rose 5% year on year. The market's consensus forecast was 5%. The previous value was 5.5%, continuing the downward trend;
• In December, the monthly rate of the PCE price index was 0.1%, which is expected to be 0.1%, compared with the previous value of 0.1%.
• In December, the US core PCE price index rose 4.4% year on year. The market's consensus forecast was 4.4%. The previous value was 4.7%, continuing the downward trend;
• In December, the monthly rate of the US core PCE was 0.3%, which is expected to be 0.3%, compared with the previous value of 0.2%.
Meanwhile, Michigan's inflation expectations also declined in January:
• Inflation expectations continued to decline. Michigan's one-year inflation forecast fell back to 3.9% in January, a sharp drop from 4.4% last month
• The 5-year inflation forecast also fell 0.1% to 2.9%
The core PCE fell below the policy interest rate (federal funds daily interest rate) for the first time in nearly a year, and is the number one goal the Federal Reserve will achieve in fighting inflation:
So when is the Federal Reserve likely to end interest rate hikes, and when can it plan to cut interest rates? This is what everyone is most concerned about:
The US has experienced a total of six complete interest rate hikes since the 80s, from December 1982 to 1984...