$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US2Y.BD)$ In this December's rebound from the yield bottom, the increase in the US 10-Year Treasury has consistently surpassed that of the US 2-Year Treasury. This indicates that the Fed intends to flatten the inverted curve and reduce recession expectations. However, yesterday's data showed a larger-than-expected drop in durable goods orders, combined with a slowdown in inflation growth and easing Michigan inflation expectations, which caused the US 2-Year Treasury's rise to once again exceed that of the US 10-Year Treasury. Whether this will further intensify the inverted trend remains to be seen. This time, the Fed may not have the final say—it’s the bond market heavyweights who do. By the way, here’s a chart showing the inversion trends during past crises; the market's bet on the 'Fed put' is not without reason. Some friends predict that the US 10-Year yield might rebound straight to 5 in this cycle, but I personally remain skeptical of such a 'straight-up' view. This assumption presumes that the Fed can fully control the situation, but yesterday, we saw a rebellion in crude oil and copper, specifically from major commodity-producing countries. $Brent Last Day Financial Futures (JUL6) (BZmain.US)$   $Copper Futures (JUL6) (HGmain.US)$ Russia and Indonesia are showing resistance. Technically, I’ve noticed significant divergence between the quarterly and yearly charts of the US 10-Year and US 2-Year Treasuries—a phenomenon never seen before in history. It seems like some players realized there was no time left, resulting in such aggressive moves causing severe divergence, especially given the severely depleted purchasing power of the dollar. Key things to watch in the coming period: the USD-JPY exchange rate, the degree of inversion between the US 10-Year and US 2-Year yields, and the attitudes of major commodity-exporting countries.