$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures (JUN6) (NQmain.US)$
Let me share my own analysis (regardless of right or wrong, I didn't buy much since the focus is on learning). The following is based on the worst-case scenario prediction:
Food 1%, Energy -3.4%, New cars 0.5%, Used cars -0.9%, Alcoholic beverages 1.1%, Health insurance 0, Medical care 0.2%, Transportation 0.5%, Housing 0.4%
Other items are considered flat
Plugging in the respective weights, the year-over-year calculation yields 7.243%, with the maximum core year-over-year at 5.967%
To be honest, the main focus of this month's calculation is to analyze how much housing inflation is, given it has the largest weight. After calculating several times, I estimate housing inflation to be around 0.17, which gives a result slightly above 7.11; but to be safe, I set it at 0.4, and it still hasn’t exceeded the expected 7.3. Let’s see how this result turns out so I can continue refining my algorithm.
What reassures me is that my core CPI forecast is much lower than the market consensus, making it relatively “safe” and reassuring. In the worst-case scenario, the CPI might be 0.1 higher, but the core should not exceed expectations. That’s all for now.