After the US seasonal adjustment in OctoberNon-farm employed populationIncrease by 261000Higher than expected200000, but lower than the previous figure of 263000, the smallest increase since December 2020; the unemployment rate in October was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.60% and the previous value of 3.50%. After the data is releasedGlobal stock markets fell first and then closed higher，The dollar index weakened, non-US currencies rose across the board, and the price of gold and crude oil soared.。
Does non-agricultural data affect the market? Is there a linear relationship between non-farm data and the dollar index?The macro level is always complex and multifaceted. To analyze these problems, we need to take into account:
01 General situation
The public value of non-farm data exceeded expectations, indicating that the employment situation in the United States is improving, which in turn leads to the development of the economy.Boost the dollar. And excellent non-farm dataHelp the Federal Reserve raise interest ratesThe potentially high interest rate has prompted the foreign exchange market to make morePromote the appreciation of the dollar, resulting inThe dollar index rose further, while gold, oil and other prices fell.。
02 unemployment rate
Cattle friends will wonder why this market trend is contrary to the general situation, which is due to the release of non-agricultural data.unemployment rate. The latest non-farm data are getting better and the unemployment rate is getting worse.The two deviate from each other. AndShort-term marketMedium,The market is more vulnerable to unemployment.。
03 interest rate hike and inflation
The reason for this phenomenon is, of course, the current situation. The Fed has raised interest rates by 75 points for four months in a row.Beauty, which is already at the high level of inflation.