The market is very concerned about tomorrow's midterm elections, because there is a saying that if the Republican Party comes to power, the stock market may rise. Looking at Trump's endorsement stock DWAC surged 66% today, we know that the market is highly expecting the Republican Party to win. The Republican Party wins -> Trump announces campaign 2024-> DWAC surges.
The following table shows the market's performance in the past 7 midterm elections. The three times marked in yellow are: Trump lost Congress in 2018 (losing 42 House seats), Obama lost Congress in 2010 (losing 64 House seats), and Clinton lost Congress in 1994 (losing 54 House seats). The above “losses” are all compared to my previous seat in the House of Representatives.
Judging from the market's performance, the stock market performed well in the week of the midterm elections, and the market didn't have any bad feelings about the National Assembly changing flags. Whether the House of Representatives became Republican during Obama's tenure in 2010 or the House of Representatives became Democrats during Trump's term in 2018, the market was very optimistic. Therefore, the market showed better characteristics than the Democratic Party when the Republican Party came to power. This is also considered a misunderstanding of the market.
However, this week's market is much more complicated than in previous decades. In particular, the US CPI data for October will be released on Thursday. The US dollar has weakened in the past two days because the market is once again beginning to think that Thursday's inflation data will drop, and the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will slow down. There are just too many macro-events to be played, too complicated.
The 2024 general election has officially entered the countdown...