$Netflix (NFLX.US)$The Q3 earnings report was really bright and blind, with a sharp rise of 14% after the market. However, since last Thursday, it has also rebounded from bottoming out around 215, closing at 240 before the earnings report. If you don't participate in “gambling earnings reports,” you probably won't have a good chance of getting on the bus.
So, now that the after-market price has reached 275, how can people who haven't boarded the bus participate in Netflix's deal?
Basic conditions: Netflix's surge must be continuous.
From a fundamental point of view, Netflix's two major Waterloo projects this year were all because the new subscribers to the earnings report fell short of expectations. The core indicator of new subscribers has always been the basis for the market's pricing of Netflix. The first two quarters of this year had negative growth, and suddenly there was a wave of positive growth exceeding expectations by 150%. Of course, the market was overjoyed.
At the same time, the Q4 corporate guidelines added 4.5 million, which was also higher than market expectations.Since the market has not abandoned the core pricing indicator of “subscribers”, then it is obvious that this is very good news.
I have to say that Netflix's management is becoming more and more “anticipatory management.” After all, they also suffered two losses from Waterloo. So, next, they said they would no longer announce their expectations for new users. What they meant was to tell the market,Don't pay too much attention to this indicator either.
What do you care about after that?
Ability to monetize.
Why is Netflix's management guided this way? Obviously, it has a lot to do with the advertising business they want to develop. Although the current macro environment is not very good, according to theory, advertising as a whole will not be very good...