Two recent Buffett deals have sparked buzz in the market: on the one hand, Buffett has continued to buy since the end of FebruaryIn the direction of “old energy” $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$Moreover, it has shown a comprehensive acquisition trend; on the other hand, Buffett has reduced his holdings for 14 years,In the direction of “new energy” $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$。
Does Buffett's increase in “old energy” and reduction in “new energy” stocks mean “old energy > new energy”, or is “new energy” risky? Actually not. Looking back at the Buffett trade over the past twenty years:
1) Buffett's heavy investment in “old and new energy” is the political and economic theme of the era where people are optimistic about energy transformation for a long time.
2) Buffett's switch of positions around “old and new energy” is more reflective of the aesthetics of its individual stocks. “Not suitable” is not “not excellent.”
One of Buffett's trading logics: there are always predictions and bets that surpass ordinary people on the political and economic themes of the times. Not only do they identify themes and directions, but they also place long-term bets and heavy bets.
1) Betting on “stagflation” in the 70s and 2018, bottoming out raw materials and big finance.Buffett's undercover in the 70s $Kaiser Aluminum (KALU.US)$Profit 600%; betting on stagflation and interest rate hikes in the early 80s and heavily invested in the insurance finance industry; during Trump's tenure in 2018, tax cuts and inflation soared, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and Buffett boosted bank holdings; the current round of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict caused mini stagnation, and Buffett further increased his holdings in various crude oil companies...