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$Crude Oil Futures (JUL6) (CLmain.US)$
A few words before work
Yesterday, I closed my long position at over 97 yuan and exited. However, my personal view still maintains a short-term pullback trend (upward). The judgment is that a pullback is certain, and the strategy is to continue going long on the pullback. Originally, I didn't want to go short at 97 yuan, but during trading, it broke through a previous high reaching 97.66, so I went short at 97.6. As a result, my short position made a small profit yesterday, but at three key levels, 'going long + stop loss' ate into some of the profits. Until all technical levels were broken, 'the short-term bullish dream shattered,' resulting in a slight win yesterday. I’m sleeping soundly with no positions.
1. Reality is reality. Since reality has broken through all technical levels, it shows that only 50% of my view yesterday was correct. This round of pullback fits one of the scenarios judged yesterday: overall, a five-wave pattern has actually been completed. However, what appeared here is a terminal five-wave pattern of 3+3+3+3+3, with the inability of the last wave of the fifth wave to reach the predetermined height ($99) marking the beginning of momentum exhaustion, confirmed by breaking below 91. I hope everyone doesn’t hold any illusions; we can't continue targeting 100 (at least for now).
2. Does that mean we can immediately go short? Those who are stubborn can try, but from a cautious perspective, it's not recommended to immediately go short. Just like the other day when it rose from 86 to 95, a pullback is sure to happen, and the pullback is the optimal entry point. For example, at 93.3-94.1, 94.9, these positions can be decided opportunistically.
A few words before work
Yesterday, I closed my long position at over 97 yuan and exited. However, my personal view still maintains a short-term pullback trend (upward). The judgment is that a pullback is certain, and the strategy is to continue going long on the pullback. Originally, I didn't want to go short at 97 yuan, but during trading, it broke through a previous high reaching 97.66, so I went short at 97.6. As a result, my short position made a small profit yesterday, but at three key levels, 'going long + stop loss' ate into some of the profits. Until all technical levels were broken, 'the short-term bullish dream shattered,' resulting in a slight win yesterday. I’m sleeping soundly with no positions.
1. Reality is reality. Since reality has broken through all technical levels, it shows that only 50% of my view yesterday was correct. This round of pullback fits one of the scenarios judged yesterday: overall, a five-wave pattern has actually been completed. However, what appeared here is a terminal five-wave pattern of 3+3+3+3+3, with the inability of the last wave of the fifth wave to reach the predetermined height ($99) marking the beginning of momentum exhaustion, confirmed by breaking below 91. I hope everyone doesn’t hold any illusions; we can't continue targeting 100 (at least for now).
2. Does that mean we can immediately go short? Those who are stubborn can try, but from a cautious perspective, it's not recommended to immediately go short. Just like the other day when it rose from 86 to 95, a pullback is sure to happen, and the pullback is the optimal entry point. For example, at 93.3-94.1, 94.9, these positions can be decided opportunistically.
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