Core points
1. The supply market is still on the rise, which may be repaired to 65000 tons or more after the end of August, and is expected to exceed 70, 000 or even 75000 tons in September. Prices in all aspects of demand are high, and the European export market is very good. Prices are still high in the short term.
2. Granular silicon: the future will definitely be N-type instead of P-type, but from the current point of view, there is no relevant data, and the main problem in the future is the oversupply of silicon material next year, which may widen the price gap; quartz sand may become a new bottleneck, but it also depends on the process of new foreign ore substitution and domestic substitution.
3. Industrial silicon: the market supply and demand are booming, the supply is higher than expected, Q4 is still relatively optimistic, the high water season enters the dry season, the output drops obviously, the demand for polysilicon organosilicon increases rapidly in the second half of the year, in addition, the demand for organosilicon is also recovering, Q4 may show a reversal of supply and demand, especially in inventory.
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1. Recent changes:
Supply: the market is still on the rise. Due to the accident of a large enterprise in Xinjiang, production decreased in July, production was scheduled for August, three plans were put into production one after another, and after maintenance, it may be repaired to 65000 tons or higher after August, and it is expected to exceed 70, 000 tons or even reach 75000 tons in September.
Demand: the price of each link is high, the European export market is very good, the price is still in a high game state in the short term, even if the domestic large base installation is not smooth, but the silicon wafer inventory is low.