The rebound in oil prices from last week's lows means that a short-term airdrop will not be able to break through the key support near 93.
The second half of the year may be in a strong tightening atmosphere.
In this situation, it will be difficult to see new variables in the July FOMC, and the Fed's actual options will also be relatively limited before inflation cools down. After the 75 BP increase in July, the current market focus is expected to shift to the intensity of the following three rate hikes.If the total rate hike hits 75 or 100 basis points in three times, then the second half of the year will still be shrouded in a strong tightening atmosphere.
Oil prices may continue to probe lower in the near future.
The performance of oil prices is crucial for the inflation outlook. Considering the approaching cold winter at the year-end, the supply-demand relationship in the European market may become more severe.In fact, there is not much time left to suppress oil prices.
Last week, crude oil left a clear lower shadow, and it is better to stabilize before the previous weekly low point, implying a weakening of short-term market downward pressure. From a technical perspective, shorts cannot open further downside space before breaking the 93/95 level. The continued decline at Monday's close confirms that crude oil has not shown signs of a rebound correction yet, and is likely to continue probing lower in the near future.
Short-term difficulty for US stocks to turn bearish to bullish.
The performance of US stocks matches that of crude oil, presenting a positive correlation in normal times. However, after the interest rate hike in June, US stocks have essentially begun a journey of rebound and recovery. Under the premise of adequate communication, known interest rate hikes do not necessarily constitute a bearish signal. It is expected that the S&P 500 may continue to maintain a volatile trend, completing the short-term transition from bearish to bullish...