EIA: Data as above.
My interpretation is as follows:
1. Before the data is released $Crude Oil Futures (JUL6) (CLmain.US)$Already up by 5%, after the release of data, crude oil inventories have surged significantly, while refined oil inventories have actually declined—a stark divergence. On the surface, this seems bearish, yet oil prices remain remarkably stable. As of press time, prices continue to fluctuate, breaking above the day’s high and maintaining a strong upward trend!
2. The logic behind the data suggests that once near-term oil prices fall to a certain level, the market will start reverting to expectations of tight oil supply and a gradual slowdown in long-term demand—rather than an immediate contraction. Similar to the sharp 3% rally seen during Tuesday’s Asia-Europe session, this was still driven by supply concerns. However, during the U.S. session, the market took a 180-degree turn, plunging more than 10% at one point. There were many factors behind this reversal (see the article for details:Please don't overlook the impact of the “succession” in the position of OPEC Secretary-General on the oil market..
3. Current refined oil products $RBOB Gasoline Futures (JUL6) (RBmain.US)$ $Heating Oil Futures (JUL6) (HOmain.US)$
The increases all exceeded those of crude oil, indicating that the previously weakly corrected cracking spreads are now choosing to rebound upward. This continues to support the tight supply situation in the oil market.
4. Remember: Before the U.S. visit to Saudi Arabia on July 15, the rebound pattern may persist. However, it’s advisable to take profits once the rebound starts to show signs of weakening and avoid unnecessary geopolitical risks.
This article was written at: tonight 2...