Bilibili will release its third-quarter report before the pre-market trading on the 17th. For this quarterly report, the main focus areas are as follows:
1. Users: MAU is expected to increase by over 30% year-on-year, focusing on management's guidance for new users.
According to QuestMobile data, Bilibili's average MAU in Q3 2021 increased by 33% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter; DAU increased by 36% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter. TF Securities predicts that Bilibili's MAU for the full year 2021 will also maintain a year-on-year growth of over 30%.
This year, Bilibili continues to invest in content, including incentives for UP owners (the 'Ad Revenue Sharing Plan' launched on September 24th), highly acclaimed variety shows ('90s Blind Date Agency', 'Do You Listen to My Music'), etc., which may attract more young people, and even those born in the 1985 and 1975, to join the community.
Earlier this year, the management gave a guidance that the MAU target is to reach 0.26 billion by the end of the year, which seems achievable now. Therefore, on the earnings call after Q3, if the management raises the MAU guidance, it may have a positive impact on the stock price. The exclusive live broadcast of League of Legends S11 in October and the top-rated anime 'Ranking of Kings' are expected to have a positive impact on users.
From the perspective of customer acquisition cost, Bilibili's average monthly cost per active customer acquisition is around 100 yuan. Compared to Kuaishou's 470 yuan per active customer acquisition cost in Q1, Bilibili's user growth momentum can be maintained for a longer period.
Second, Revenue: Citic Securities expects a year-on-year increase of 60.8%, with advertising growth momentum possibly slowing...