It's double eleven once a year again.
Every time this happens, I always have to express some emotion and say a few more words. There have also been different opinions about this festival. For example, at first, I was more inclined to think that this is a festival with promoting domestic demand as the main element. The retail industry was greatly liberated at this time, boosting domestic demand. Since then, my thoughts have gradually turned to the relationship between retail and manufacturing departments, believing that scale growth at the cost of sacrificing terminal market prices (often 50% off) may sacrifice brands' profits (quite a few brands are blackmailed to participate). This is not a sustainable shopping festival.
In my opinion that has fluctuated over and over again, Double Eleven has entered its 13th year, and there is still great uncertainty about the macroeconomy affected by the pandemic. Let's watch Double Eleven again at this time.
At the beginning of 2021, I had confidence in the retail industry. The main logic is: the scissor difference between CPI and PPI is becoming more obvious. From the perspective of brands or the entire manufacturing industry, if we want to reduce the rising pressure on the cost side, the most effective way is to increase the scale of terminal sales. On the one hand, to dilute costs with a scale effect, on the other hand, it is more important. If demand side enterprises are strong, production pressure can be fundamentally relieved through price increases.
However, the above situation did not happen as intended. After the Q3 macro data was released, the scissor gap between the two sets of data was still widening.
Since the year-on-year correction of PPI at the beginning of the year, some professionals predicted that after 1-2 quarters, costs on the manufacturing side would be transmitted to the sales side, leading to terrible inflation, and some even called for monetary policy...