This is a popular science article. Combining some of my immature thoughts, I acted hastily. If there are any mistakes, please correct them.
The three-month financial disclosure period has recently arrived again. Recently, no matter where you go public, you have to do one thing, which is to disclose your financial reports.
Although it is not mandatory to disclose quarterly reports, like Hong Kong stocks, most companies will disclose their performance, which is quite natural.
However, companies, investors, media, and capital markets alike are receiving a high level of attention.
“Gambling” financial reports: a matter of anticipatory management
This is reflected in the capital market, that is, the company's stock price fluctuation and turnover have risen sharply, which can also be described as a change in volume ratio.
The reason behind this is because investors write articles about the expectations of the financial report. Before the financial report is announced, they will use options close to the financial report to perform operations.
So for quite a few investors, the earnings report is just an undrawn lottery ticket, and you can bet whether it's good or bad.
Of course, it's good or bad. The standard for judging is whether the financial report exceeds expectations; this will directly affect the stock price trend.
However, what I want to say is that the market we are in is not a strong and effective market; there will definitely be asymmetric information, so the answer to the lottery will definitely be known to a few people, and even a small number of funds will have something unusual.
So speculating on earnings expectations is extremely unfair to most people, because you are actually gambling again.
My suggestion is that if you really gamble on financial expectations, look at changes in options compared to the company's news...