Currently, the domestic economy is facing expectations of recession, while there is a strong expectation of stagflation abroad. As the saying goes, there is no bull market in stagflation. The prices of crude oil and csi commodity equity index cannot remain strong all the time. In this market environment, the midstream and manufacturing industries are already facing great difficulties.Some futures products such as coal and pvc have been hitting new highs, with stock prices continuously diverging and experiencing widespread sell-offs. To some extent, this has already signaled a warning.。
$CHALCO (02600.HK)$Baijiu products have finally entered a phase of market activity, which belongs to defensive assets in the market, providing opportunities for public funds.
Do not buy stocks of cyclical companies when the business cycle develops to the third stage, which is the second core principle of investing in cyclical stocks (the first core principle is to focus on the cycle and lightly value).
Not going into detail on the three stages of the business cycle development, let's just briefly mention it here:
Phase one: Expectation stage, prices have not risenStock prices rise first as expectations of some people become positive.
Phase 2: Stage of rising product prices, as product prices rise, enterprise profit expectations improve, and stock prices rise;
Phase 3: Performance release, product stagnant inflation stage, product prices rise to a high level, performance begins to release significantly, commonly known as the performance wave stage. There is a situation where in some industries, the prosperity cycle lasts for a long time, and product prices are in the early stage of rising, while performance has already started to release. This situation should be classified as the second stage.
It is not that when the prosperity cycle develops to the third stage, stock prices will not continue to rise, because the market has expectations for the development of each cycle of the industry and changes in product prices...