Recently, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen to nearly 0.09 million/ton, and lithium resource stocks have been benefiting and reaching new highs. Leading Tianqi Lithium has seen an annual increase of 119%, and Ganfeng Lithium's A/H shares have increased 98%/88%, respectively.
CITIC Construction Investment believes that the logic of structural shortage of lithium resources continues to be implemented, midstream materials factories are expanding production, and demand for new energy vehicles is booming, and lithium prices are expected to continue to rise.
The pace and space for lithium price increases in this cycle
The two major cycles in the history of the lithium industry are mainly driven by changes in the consumer sector. They are the big cycle driven by consumer electronics in 2004-2007 and the big cycle driven by new energy vehicles in 2015-2017, respectively.
This big cycle of the lithium industry will be mainly driven by the shift of new energy vehicles from different consumption regions (China - China, Europe, America - countries around the world) to join forces in new consumer fields (multiple scenarios for lithium batteries such as energy storage), or it may be an unprecedented super cycle.
The current round of lithium prices has doubled since rising from the bottom of Q3 in 2020, but it is still at the center of history. Currently, the price of electric carbon is 0.0885 million/ton, the price of lithium hydroxide is 0.1005 million/ton, and the CIF price of 5% lithium concentrate is 735 US dollars/ton.
Cinda Securities believes that it does not take into account inventory disturbances in the industrial chain (removal or inventory replenishment),
1) Under the conservative assumption of demand:
2021Q3-2022Q1, the marginal increase in demand is greater than the marginal increase in supply, and the rise in lithium prices may hit historical highs (lithium carbonate and hydrogen in 2017...