Since February, sentiment on Wall Street has changed dramatically. The previous irrational exuberance in popular assets such as tech stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies has rapidly cooled, replaced by a broad risk-off retreat.
On the surface, this round of cross-asset sell-offs was not triggered by a single 'black swan' event—this is very different from the panic-driven crash caused by Trump's 'Liberation Day' trade war in April last year. Instead, the current market is more like being gradually worn down by a series of negative news stories. These developments have continuously intensified collective anxiety about overvalued markets—after all, many had already suspected overheating—which ultimately triggered synchronized withdrawals by investors.
Why did US stocks fall sharply? Is the pullback a risk or an opportunity? This article will guide fellow investors through the logic behind the decline and explore trading strategies and responses for the future.
What are the reasons for the decline in US stocks?
Considering various factors, Guolian Minsheng Overseas Research believesThe market downturn may not be due to changes in macro narratives or AI industry trends,but rather driven by capital behavior.
On the macro level,After the ADP data was released on February 4, the market is more likely to engage in rate cut expectation trading or recession expectation trading when faced with soft data. For the former, the liquidity release driven by rising expectations of rate cuts is a potential boon for technology; for the latter, there were no significant fluctuations observed in US bonds or the US Dollar Index on February 4, and some pro-cyclical sectors also showed resilience. Based on this,The bank believes that the correlation between the decline and macro factors is not obvious.
If it’s not macro-related, then could it be AI-driven...