My most direct impression this season is that the numbers are rising, the rhythm is becoming predictable, yet the market remains somewhat hesitant.
Quarterly revenue has reached$46.7 billion, with the data center contributing$41.1 billionThe management has directly raised the guidance for the next quarter to 54 billion USD, and does not include the uncertain factor of H2O shipments from China in the baseline. Prices may be influenced by market sentiment in the short term, but the business is on a linear trajectory, which determines the fundamental nature of trading: as long as the rhythm does not break, upward movement is more than just a slogan.
Core conclusion: A stock price of 200 is not driven by enthusiasm, but rather by fitting several puzzle pieces together.
I prefer to understand the stock price reaching 200 USD as a puzzle.
Main Line One: Scale and Visibility — Solidifying the Annualized Pace of Two Hundred Billion
I prefer to look at scale first, because once the scale is clarified, the valuation has a benchmark. With quarterly revenues exceeding 46 billion USD, and guidance for the next quarter set at 54 billion USD, this effectively pushes the annualized pace steadily overtwo hundred billion.The most critical aspect is the noise reduction in the guidance; the companyclearly stated that it did not include shipments from China H20 in its calculations,which removes the variable most susceptible to policy disruptions; what remains are self-driven orders and deliveries. The implications for the model are quite direct:As visibility increases, the income curve becomes smoother, the risk premium lowers, and naturally, the discounted prices do not require such significant discounts.Personally, I regard the guidance after noise reduction as an upgrade in certainty, which is more substantial than a single instance of exceeding expectations.
Main Line Two: Supply and Delivery — From Shortage to Orderly Delivery
NVIDIA needs...