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10月CPI數據出爐!下月減息有戲嗎?

At 21:30 on November 13th, Peking time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the CPI in October rose by 2.6% year-on-year, in Show More
At 21:30 on November 13th, Peking time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the CPI in October rose by 2.6% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, reaching a three-month high and ending a "six consecutive declines," with an estimated increase of 2.6%, compared to the previous rise of 2.4%; the U.S. CPI in October increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with an estimated increase of 0.2%, compared to a previous rise of 0.2%. After the CPI data was released, the three major U.S. equity index futures simultaneously surged, and the VIX volatility index fell. Previously, according to cme's "Fed Watch": the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in December is 62.1%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 26.5%. How do you see the future market trends regarding this? Is a rate cut in December likely?
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    Last night at 9:30, the USA officially announced its October CPI data, with CPI increasing by 2.6% year-on-year, meeting market expectations, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, reaching a three-month high and stopping the 'six consecutive declines'.
    Seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations, and remained unchanged from the previous value.
    In terms of core CPI, it increased by 3.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations and consistent with the previous value; it increased by 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations and consistent with the previous value.
    From a data perspective, most CPI data has maintained the previous level without rebounding, but the inflation level has not further decreased.
    After the data was released, the market's expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased, rising from 60.3% yesterday to 82.8%.
    However, the data market in capital markets does not seem to buy into this.
    $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$Only rising by $10 in the short term, it then fell again, breaking below $2600 once more and hitting a new low for the period.
    The bond yield reflects a slightly stronger response. $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$It dropped sharply and then climbed to a new stage high.
    Yesterday we said in the article that if the gold price can stabilize above $2600 after the CPI comes out, it would be appropriate to add some positions.
    If the gold price remains high after the CPI comes out...
    After the CPI is announced, will the Fed hold interest rates steady in December? The market doesn't think so!
    After the CPI is announced, will the Fed hold interest rates steady in December? The market doesn't think so!
    After the CPI is announced, will the Fed hold interest rates steady in December? The market doesn't think so!
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