As is usual at the beginning of the article, historical data will be shared first. The picture below shows the Goldman Sachs report. Since 1950, the first two weeks of July have been the strongest for the whole year. According to the Bank of America report, when the S&P 500 rises in the first half of the year, there is a 74% chance of rising in the second half of the year, with an average return of 5.7%.
But this time, I have a different opinion on short-term trends. The PCE data was favorable on Friday and the index quickly reversed downward and the high level after opening. This was basically the starting point of a short correction in these two years. There is also a large negative line in treasury bonds. Of course, it could also be the reason for quarterly rebalancing. In short, please pay more attention to the S&P futures 5512/spx 5450 support level. It has been tested four times last week. If it breaks below, SPX 5400-5320 is next week's support range. As for Friday's non-farm payrolls data, the employment population changes are quite random, and it has now lost its reference significance. However, the market expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4%, which may have a certain impact on expectations of interest rate cuts.
I. Inventory of last week's predictions:
II. Macro indicators
1. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path is very clear. It will cut interest rates once in the second half of the year and 3-4 times next year. The US dollar index has limited future support. Unless there is a more intense geopolitical conflict, we should not continue to bullish on the US dollar index in the second half of the year, especially after August.
US dollar index
2. Interest rates on US bonds rebounded strangely after PCE data. This may be due to the Bank of Japan selling bonds. We need to see if...