U.S. STOCKS FACE ADJUSTMENT PRESSURE RECENTLY, MARKETS EXPECT INTEREST RATE CUTSConstantly falling emptyis one of the important elements. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$There are also signs of a reversal in the technical trend, with the MACD and the beginning of April near the beginning of April, and also at the high end of the month“Cross of Death”In a signal that the market is worried about a US equity peak or an adjustment in momentum, the market is now keenly watching the PCE data released tonight to see if the momentum from the fall in inflation could come back, prompting interest rate cuts to be replicated.
First of all, I'm going to evaluate the current index valuation of US stocks. From the data above WIND, the S&P is only recently off the 10-year averageOne standard deviation falls above, so US stocksThe “bubble theory” is still difficult to establish for the time being, the short-term is more likely to be a normal adjustment after a surge.
fromFutubull's Database of the United States EconomyAs you can see above, the market expects the monthly U.S. personal spending rate to be atIt fell to 0.3% in May, down 0.5 percentage points from 0.8% in the previous month, this data will be supportedInflationary pressure will ease。 Of course, whether the data will fall as big as the market expected is the focus of the market. After all, looking at the data for April, we also expected a drop in inflation last month, but the end result is hollow.
The authors believe that the May data is more likely to show a month-on-month decline, mainly due to the fact that the performance in April was higher than expected due to theLAGGING INDICATORS FOR “HOUSING AND RENT”。 If investors keep an eye onUS retail sales data released on May 15Performance, in May...