$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$ Starting in early November last year, the Federal Reserve suddenly turned dovish, saying it would cut interest rates significantly. At that time, the market's expectation for rate cuts was1-1.5%percent, the yen appreciated by approximately8%，Subsequently, CPI repeatedly contradicted the rate cut expectations, which kept decreasing.
It wasn't until early March that Japan began constantly hinting at interest rate hikes, ending negative interest rates. However, at most, it was onlya change from -0.1% to 0-0.1%, at most an increase of 0.2%.The probability is approximately 0.1, and the Japanese yen has also appreciated.2%During this period
However, the 0.1% rate hike is not comparable to the 1% interest rate cut by the US dollar at the end of last year. So after the cpi last week, the yen started to depreciate again (this time, it indirectly reduced the number of interest rate cuts by 0.25).
Therefore, in terms of magnitude, the US dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate may be moreDependent on the extent of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cutsrather than the magnitude of the yen's rate hikes
At the same time, ordinary people may also overlook a point,The intensity of media publicity, the importance of the event, and the rarity,have completely different dimensions from the impact on the market,they should not be confused. $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$