#睇業績用富途牛牛 #
On January 18, 2024, TSMC released its 23-year Q4 earnings report. Both revenue and net profit exceeded Bloomberg's unanimous expectations. 23Q4 achieved revenue of NT$625.5 billion (US$19.62 billion), down 20% year on year, up 13% month on month, exceeding market expectations of NT$618.3 billion; net profit of NT$238.7 billion (US$7.49 billion), down 19% year on year, but up 13% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations of NT$224.13 billion.
Currently, there are two things that the market is most concerned about TSMC:
First, how is TSMC's performance recovery progress. This is mainly affected by the recovery in consumer electronics and the continued demand for AI;
The second is the progress of the commissioning of TSMC's production capacity, particularly advanced process production capacity;
1. Has TSMC confirmed that it has passed the “bottom of performance”?
On the revenue side, TSMC's revenue has rebounded for two consecutive quarters since it bottomed out in Q2 in '23. This quarter's revenue increased 13% month-on-month, further accelerating from the previous quarter. Foundry industry revenue for the full year of 2023 fell 13% year on year, TSMC's annual revenue fell 9% year on year, and TSMC continued to outperform the industry level.
So what is driving TSMC's performance recovery this quarter?
Figure: TSMC's quarterly revenue and month-on-month growth rate (million US dollars)
Smartphones and high-performance computing HPC are TSMC's biggest revenue sources. Together, the two account for more than 80%. Among them, HPC mainly includes AI aspects such as video cards and data centers...