As the Christmas holidays and New Year's Day approach, the trading volume of global stock markets also showed a clear downward trend. On next Monday 25th, all markets other than A-shares and Japanese stocks will be closed for one day. Markets all over the world will be closed on next Monday after New Year's Day.
However, the FED interest rate decision on Wednesday, the Eurozone and the UK interest rate decision on Thursday, and the US stock market also experienced its fourth bad day on Friday; after the FED decision, the market continued to strengthen the monetary policy “shift” (Fed Pivot) expectations, even the ECB and BOE's “partial” stance during the BOE decision, and the speeches of three FED officials on Friday: Williams spoke “the eagle” directly expressed that “it is too early to discuss interest rate cuts and March interest rate cuts”; Goulsby's “partial dove”, believes that “the focus of the FED's work will shift from inflation to employment, not to employment.” Excluding interest rate cuts at the March meeting Possibility; Bostic favors the “neutral hawk” and believes that interest rates will be cut in the third quarter. It is expected that interest rates will be cut twice in 2024, possibly starting in the third quarter;
“Christmas Package” - After the resolution, the four major US stock indexes have now risen nearly 3%, with Russell leading the increase as high as 7.5%
There is no doubt that this interest rate decision, whether from the bitmap, SEP forecast, or Mr. Bao's press conference after the meeting, conveyed “the first step in policy transformation” to the market; in the bitmap, interest rates were cut by 75BP in 2024 and 75-100 points in 2025; the SEP forecast 2024 PCE was 2.4%, CorePCE...