Today, the three major indices closed down. The seven major technology stocks fell sharply in early trading, and partially recovered at the end of the session. Among them, the NASDAQ contributed the most, closing down 0.84%.
There are several relatively important economic data to be released this week, including job vacancies and non-farm payrolls data, but if these figures are not too biased, then they will not have a trending impact on the market. US stocks have continued to rise over the past month, and everyone is worried about whether they are rising too fast, so are US stocks about to start the next major correction?
Historically, when US stocks increase by more than 10% in a single month, they will basically continue to rise sharply every time for the next 6 months. This is mainly because when a 10% increase in a single month occurs, the macro environment of US stocks changes, leading to an increase in the valuation of the overall stock index, while the fundamentals of individual stocks have not changed much. However, the main reason for such a big rebound this time was the fall in inflation, which brought the market ahead of schedule for interest rate cuts. The market already expects interest rate cuts to begin in March next year, and it is expected to drop to 4% by the end of 2024. The stock market is looking ahead. The current austerity environment has not changed, but interest rate cuts are expected ahead of schedule, so they will rise early. However, in fact, cutting interest rates earlier is not entirely a good thing. It probably means that the economy may not be able to withstand it and needs to cut interest rates early to increase demand. Therefore, no matter what the path of interest rate cuts is later, the long and short sides have their own interpretation methods, and each has its own reasons.
But at the end of the day. We need to remember the American League...