Lao Bao is coming out to speak again, even though I don't know how many times in a year to see how he walks a tightrope tonight.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell) will deliver a speech on October 19 local time (0:00 a.m. on Friday, Beijing time), which may reveal important clues about future monetary policy.
Recently, there is a major contradiction. On the one hand, inflation data has been “improving”, and on the other hand, US bond yields have been soaring. So what is the direction of the November interest rate meeting policy?
Judging from the current situation, Lao Bao is more likely to release pigeons. Some people anticipated the next three situations:
Hawk
The US debt will remain at 5.25% for two years. The ten-year US debt will be 5%
The equivalent is to raise interest rates once at the end of this year and cut interest rates at the end of next year.
neutral
The two-year US debt will fall back to 5.15%. The ten-year US debt will be 4.9%
Corresponding to an interest rate hike once at the end of this year and two interest rate cuts next year
pigeons
The two-year US debt will reach 4.91%. The ten-year US debt will be 4.7%
The counterpart is that interest rates will not be raised this year; interest rates will be cut twice next year.
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