Although the resolution hit the “pause button” as expected, the announced SEP forecast and bitmap clearly indicate that the future path is “add one more code and confirm higher for longer”; according to the bitmap, there is still 1 25 bp interest rate hike left in this year, and next year's interest rate cut is very limited.
GDP was raised during the year, the unemployment rate was lowered, and the inflation outlook was optimistic. The terminal rate was 5.6%; interest rates were cut by 1-3 yards in 2024, but the timing is unknown;
After the FOMC resolution $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$V-shaped reversal, with the three major stock indexes, gold, crude oil, and non-US currencies falling;
At the press conference, Mr. Bao continued to emphasizeInflation is an indicator that takes precedence over everything else, and it is not yet time to determine victory against inflation, we need to wait further for the data to be confirmed. The recent rise in energy prices has indeed disrupted inflation, but oil prices will also affect consumption behavior and inflation expectations. However, the Federal Reserve has doubts about the continuation of the rise in oil prices.
When asked how he views soft landing, Mr. Bao believes that a soft landing is not the Federal Reserve's benchmark expectation (baseline expectation) because...