But... well, our previous predictions for oil prices were a bit conservative. Currently, the oil market trend is rising a bit rapidly, and there are very few signs of stagnation.
This past weekend, Brent and WTI oil prices have risen one after another. Currently, they are all above 90 US dollars/barrel. This is also the highest level in the past 10 months. If we take the time a little further, from 70 US dollars/barrel at the end of June and the beginning of July to now, international oil prices have risen by nearly one-third in two months or so.
Source: Jinten data
As shown in the chart above, oil prices have experienced a deep and large fluctuation this year. They have completely left the trend of rising and falling in the first half of the year, and have maintained an upward trend since the end of June. As oil prices continue to rise, it is basically possible to make the next judgment, which we have emphasized before:
The peak of this round of the international crude oil cycle, which was jointly driven by “masks” and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, is not over yet, and high prices will continue.
However, there is one expectation that might need to be adjusted. As can be clearly seen from the trend in recent months, the “bottom line” of oil prices acceptable to oil-producing countries has changed — 70 US dollars/barrel. In the past, this could be considered a moderately high price. You can almost think of it as the bottom line of oil prices acceptable to oil-producing countries for a long time to come. Once the drop breaks through this bottom line, they will take tough measures to bolster the price.
At the same time, what haunts the international oil market is not only the willingness of oil-producing countries to control; factors such as current inventories and the price of refined oil products all play a strong role in supporting oil prices...