If there are no surprises, the Fed's interest rate hike has come to an end. Now it's just a question of not continuing to raise interest rates or adding another 25 Bp. There is no harm in it. When I was old, I predicted that the rate hike would last until the second and third quarter, and it seems to be about the same now.
Although the CPI data for July has been repeated, it is also at 3.2%, and there has been no sharp rebound. I don't know if you remember if you remember Powell's target inflation rate of 2%-3% for the US Federal Reserve. In fact, it is already very close.
Also, the current benchmark interest rate is already 5.5%, which is already very high. You need to know that interest rates during the 2007-2008 Lehman bankruptcy, the global financial crisis, the 2000 internet bubble, the 1997 Black Monday, and the Asian financial turmoil are also close to this location.
I believe the Fed is not a bad person; they will also know that the upper interest rate limit that the US can afford is basically in this position.
Now it's time to cut interest rates. In my humble opinion, the high interest rate environment will last for about half a year. This half year has been to consolidate the results of interest rate hikes and observe the economic environment. It has also given business residents a certain sense of contraction.
If they enter the interest rate cut zone too quickly, enterprises will immediately enter the expansion zone, residents will also be more willing to increase leverage, and inflation will easily be repeated.
According to my idea, the IMF is worth holding at this moment, because the next six months or so will be a high-interest environment, and the underlying assets of the IMF are bank deposits and US debt. No wind at about 5% per annum...