#睇業績用富途牛牛 #
Before the market on August 10, EST, Alibaba will release its Q1 financial report for fiscal year 2024 (ending June 2023).
Core views
1. Chinese businesses are expected to benefit from year-on-year growth in the overall retail market
China's commercial business is expected to be driven by a recovery in domestic consumption this quarter. Total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased 18%/13%/3.1% year-on-year from April to June 2023. The implementation of a number of promotional activities is conducive to the rebound of GMV. However, competition in the industry is becoming increasingly heated, and focusing on low price competition may cause the growth rate of Alibaba's e-commerce business to be weaker than the overall market, while also affecting the increase in the monetization rate.
2. It is expected that the growth rate of international business will continue to increase this quarter
As revenue expands and many negative factors have been mitigated, it is expected that international business losses will continue to narrow this quarter. On AliExpress's side, the impact of the European VAT VAT tax has been eliminated, the new feature AE Choice has received a good response, and the pilot project is gradually being expanded. On the Trendyol side, Turkey's exchange rate stabilized, and the negative impact of the earthquake on Trendyol gradually disappeared in March, and the new market in Azerbaijan began to expand; the development strategy of Shopee, Lazada's core competitor in Southeast Asia, changed, from focusing on revenue to focusing on profit, and the competitive landscape slowed down somewhat in the short term.
3. The cloud business is still expected to be under pressure, and the price reduction strategy will take time to reflect
Dependent on the macro...