$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Overall Direction Forecast
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates on July 27th is 100%
It is predicted there will be another rate hike in September. Therefore, the US Dollar Index remains strong, especially if Europe takes preventive measures for potential black swan events in the second half of the year. Unless the Federal Reserve genuinely cuts interest rates, the US Dollar Index will not fall back to around 90. Otherwise, it will continue to hover around 100. At most, by the end of the year, the US Dollar Index may return to the range of 96-97.
One important data point is that Eurozone data is very poor. From a technical perspective, the euro cannot recover in a short period, which will also lift the US dollar. This is because more than 50% of the US Dollar Index is composed of the euro. Thus, as long as the euro remains weak, the US dollar won't drop significantly.