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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ Given the current base effect, fluctuations between July and September won't be too extreme. The growth rates of core inflation components like housing prices and the service sector are also peaking. After this round of hikes in July, there will still be two months until September to gain better control. Between the end of the July hike and before the release of August's CPI data, there might even be a chance for yields to reach 8 or higher within at least a fortnight. In the ultra-long term, balancing U.S. inflation and growth expectations, and considering the limitless potential of AI in the future, if we assume a 2.5% growth rate (which is 25% higher than the previous 2%), then no matter what, the yield on ultra-long-term Treasuries currently appears relatively high. Just some food for thought.
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