On Friday, real estate stocks surged unexpectedly, rising 5%.
However, the surge in real estate stocks has sparked speculation about market manipulation by major players...
01 Hedge Fund Bullish
Hedge fund heavyweight Li Bei mentioned in her monthly report a few days ago that she is bullish on real estate and has allocated 10% of her portfolio to real estate stocks as a base position.
On Friday, real estate stocks skyrocketed by 5%, leading some to speculate whether this was due to Li Bei’s bullish stance on real estate stocks.
Words can be harmful. Especially for hedge funds, such rumors may be unintentional from the speaker but carry significant implications for the listener, implying something chilling:Are you manipulating the market?
As a result, Li Bei quickly wrote a lengthy article clarifying that she had been bullish on real estate stocks for a long time: This surge in real estate stocks has nothing to do with me; don't falsely accuse me.
As the saying goes, 'A person fears fame as a pig fears fat.' After becoming famous, an offhand rumor could spark trouble, so it’s crucial to extinguish the fire while it's still just a spark.
Back to property stocks and housing prices, this time I side with Li Bei’s viewpoint.
Bullish on real estate
When I made my annual outlook in January this year, I clearly expressed my view: the stock market would experience volatile growth this year, and housing prices would rebound after hitting bottom.The Underlying Logic of the 2023 Stock Market Rally
The underlying logic is:
① This year's economy, having faced the risk of pandemic shocks, is showing signs of weak recovery. Economic recovery and growth mean that some people will make money.
② Fiscal policy continues to gain momentum, with a slight increase compared to last year, representing a marginal improvement in the macro environment.
③ Monetary policy remains stable, meaning that although interest rates may rise, they will continue to stay relatively low. The lower the interest rate, the more favorable it is for the stock and housing markets.
Therefore, my plan for 2023 is: hold stocks and wait for...