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非農就業數據接近預期,5月會加息25個基點嗎?

4月7日,美國3月經季節調整後非農就業人口增加23.6萬人,為2020年12月以來最小增幅;預期為23.9萬人,前值為31.1萬人,修正值為32.6萬人。據CME「美聯儲觀察」,美聯儲5月加息25個基點的概率為56.8%。非農就業人口和失業率顯示,勞動力市場如期放緩,5月會加息2 Show More
4月7日,美國3月經季節調整後非農就業人口增加23.6萬人,為2020年12月以來最小增幅;預期為23.9萬人,前值為31.1萬人,修正值為32.6萬人。據CME「美聯儲觀察」,美聯儲5月加息25個基點的概率為56.8%。非農就業人口和失業率顯示,勞動力市場如期放緩,5月會加息25bp嗎?
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    The data is basically in line with expectations; there's nothing more to say.
    Everyone knows this data thing. It's really hard to say whether it's fake or not; no one dares to say it. However, if you look at the data alone, a basically continuous rate hike is inevitable.
    However, one thing we still need to know is the lagging nature of the impact. Exactly how much the US economy can withstand and be resilient is still hard to say. Overall, judging from bank failures and current corporate layoffs, it should be experiencing a recession. It seems that the current recession is quite mild, but the debt problem is still quite unresolved. Of course, it is necessary to resolve this issue. Of course, it is not up to the US to decide; it depends on what creditors say, especially in the current situation where America's hegemony is in hidden decline. This is already a global consensus. So what exactly was lost and what was gained this time is a question that has yet to be further revealed.
    If the US achieves a soft landing, then this process will definitely take a very long time. Why is it a soft landing? America's hegemony in the past had the courage to take the initiative to break through the crisis, and now it also has, but compared to before, he has more concerns. The hard landing method doesn't work, so a soft landing is definitely the best choice right now, and the current focus of the US economy is slowing down, and policymakers also need time to adjust. This is actually good for everyone. One thing to note, however, is that the market should not be too optimistic; ignoring the strength of the Federal Reserve is a terrible thing. Although lions can also take a nap, he's not a cat after all.
    If I were to give an expectation, I'd be more biased,...
    11
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