Some are saying the meeting minutes will be released at 2 PM.Now that daylight saving time has ended, it will be 3 AM Beijing time on Thursday morning. Expect significant volatility tonight.
Let's recap,The focus of the November meeting was the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% during the November FOMC meeting. Powell mentioned that it would be appropriate to slow down the pace of rate hikes as early as the next meeting or subsequent meetings, though no decisions have been made yet.
Minutes Outcome Forecast
Viewpoint 1:This set of minutes will focus on two key points: discussions about whether it is appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes and whether it is suitable to keep the terminal rate unchanged. The Fed will closely monitor inflation data and signs of economic recession, and ultimately, it will depend on the data. This set of meeting minutes is unlikely to negatively impact the stock market.
Viewpoint 2:The Fed has not finished tightening monetary policy. After all, with an inflation rate of 7.7%, it still has a long way to go to reach the Fed’s target level of 2%.。
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, federal funds futures traders currently predict a 75.8% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points in December, with a 24.2% chance of a 75-basis-point hike. Most traders expect the peak interest rate in this cycle to fall between 5.00%-5.25%.
Taking a blind guess on how the stock market will perform on the day the Fed minutes are released
According to statistics, so far this year, the Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) has held seven monetary policy meetings and released six meeting minutes...