Summary:
Russia announced that it will only export food to friendly countries
The EU may face another food shortage after the energy crisis
The impact on China is limited, but it may raise import costs
Background of the incident:
On April 1, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council Medvedev said that Russia will only export food to friendly countries using roubles and national currency settlements.
Earlier, after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, Russia added 48 countries and regions to the unfriendly list in the face of Western sanctions. Including: the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, the European Union (all 27 countries), Australia, Canada, etc.
The Haiyin Research Institute believes
As one of the world's major grain exporting regions, Russia and Ukraine accounted for 26% and 20% of the global share of wheat and corn exports in 2021, respectively, which can be described as significant.
After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, due to major military operations in Ukraine, which affected spring planting to a certain extent, it is expected that Ukraine's grain exports may decline this year.
This time Russia offered a “food weapon.”The EU is likely to be the most affected.First, the EU is geographically closer to Russia and Ukraine; second, Russian and Ukrainian wheat and corn accounted for 30% and 50% of EU imports last year, respectively. (Data source: CMB International, same as above)
As far as the EU is concerned, if it cannot find sufficient food import alternatives in the short term, it may face a “food shortage” following the energy crisis. Under the influence of grain and oil resonance, European inflation may continue to rise, but will the ECB adopt a more hawkish policy as a result...