On the day there will be Equity Index, Equity Index Options, and Individual Stock Options Three major derivatives will expire simultaneously, and a surge in daily trading volume of 30%-50% is expected, with short-term volatility (VIX) likely to jump.
Historical data shows that nearly 80% of the S&P 500 Index's amplitude exceeds 2% during the week of Three Witch Day, especially when combined with other risk events.
1. Triple Witching
   ◦ If released "Hawkish" signals(such as suggesting a delay in interest rate cuts), high-valued Technology Stocks may face selling pressure;"Dovish" stancemay boost risk Assets, but be cautious of profit-taking after Bullish realizations.
2. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (announced on June 18).
◦ Escalation of conflict may drive up oil prices, intensifying inflation worries, which is Bearish for the consumer sector; if the situation eases, a pullback in energy stocks may drag down the index.
3. Middle East geopolitical conflict.
Market volatility simulation
Severe fluctuations
Derivatives liquidation + Hawkish Fed + Escalation of conflict
Technology stocks, Consumer Discretionary, Energy
First drop, then rise.
Dovish Federal Reserve leads to a sentiment recovery.
Growth stocks and small caps.
Liquidity scramble.
Algorithmic trading triggers a chain of sell pressure.
High beta stocks, leveraged ETFs.
Recommended Operating Strategy
Short term (June 17-21).
◦ Reduce Overvalued Technology Stocks(such as AI Concept) exposure, be cautious of price distortions caused by Gamma squeeze.
◦ Avoid High-leverage ETF trading, sudden changes in liquidity may amplify losses.
– Avoidance Direction
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