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大幅減息無可避免?衰退交易來勢洶洶

美國7月份非農數據顯示出美國企業招聘速度明顯放緩,並且失業率超預期升至近三年來的最高水平,觸發“薩姆規則”。據CME“聯儲局觀察”,聯儲局9月減息25bp的概率爲30.5%,減息50bp的概率爲69.5%。美國7月ISM非製造業PMI為51.4,預期51,前值48.8。投資者對美 Show More
美國7月份非農數據顯示出美國企業招聘速度明顯放緩,並且失業率超預期升至近三年來的最高水平,觸發“薩姆規則”。據CME“聯儲局觀察”,聯儲局9月減息25bp的概率爲30.5%,減息50bp的概率爲69.5%。美國7月ISM非製造業PMI為51.4,預期51,前值48.8。投資者對美國經濟急劇下滑甚至陷入經濟衰退的擔憂情緒升溫,美國以及全球股市陷入恐慌,延續下跌趨勢。你認爲9月聯儲局減息幅度有多大?當前市場如何交易?
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    1. Technology stocks remain the best long-term investment benchmark:
    The recent announcement of earnings and outlook in US technology stocks was not as expected, and capital expenditure by large technology companies in AI has failed to produce results, accelerating the decline of technology stocks, and the US technology share price is facing a correction.
    2. Adjustments in the value of US stocks, without hindrance:
    In the past, US tech stocks have performed strongly, forcing US legacy and biotech stocks to underperform and even fall, but with the recent correction in tech stocks, biotech stocks and legacy stocks have started to rise, including McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Walmart, 3M, Pfizer, Chevy, P&G, and NIKE, among others. The market is well capitalized, showing the volatility of the US stock market.
    3. Bond Price Trend Determined:
    Investors worried that the US economy is entering a recession, funds flowing from the stock market to the US Treasury, and policy-sensitive 2-year debt yields fall to the lowest since May last year, the Chicago Futures Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 0.25pc cut in September is 78%, and a Goldman Sachs report forecasts the number of rate cuts from September And twice in December, increase the interest rate once in November.
    4. The yen is no longer cheap, and the long-term exchange rate is rising:
    Even compared to other major global central banks, the yen rate remains low, but it is already the highest level since December 2008. The Bank of Japan forecasts the end of the 2024 fiscal year, excluding new...
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