When I chatted with a few institutional friends before, everyone had a consensus: coming back this year showed that the effects of the monetary policies that have been continuously introduced have been combined, so the only thing left that can grow steadily and solve problems is fiscal policy.
(Issuance of debt is fiscal policy)
We are the opposite of America. On the US side, fiscal policy has reached a marginal low point of utility; on our side, monetary policy has failed a bit.
America's high interest rates plus good economic data are behind it fiscal spending. If you are interested in looking at the deficit over the past two years, you can see it. Furthermore, the yield on US Treasury bonds also reflects this. So many bonds have been issued, yet the market doesn't have that much money, and there is an imbalance between supply and demand.
Therefore, over the past two days, discussions have been going on overseas. Should we not raise interest rates while issuing large amounts of debt while raising interest rates like this, the US government can accept it, and the Fed can accept it.
The market can't stand it.
That is why the market expects the Fed's monetary policy to be relaxed.
In fact, the market is currently setting prices for the second time.A short-term rebound in US stocks is doable.
Our side is the opposite. It started half a year ago. Everyone discovered that after the money was released, business residents just didn't use leverage, and furthermore, they didn't even spend money.
A lot has been done in monetary policy, but not many problems have been solved.
The problem now is that a few large industries are sluggish, and the debt problem still exists; it is not enough to resolve the problem and continue with monetary policy efforts.
Thus, from 2 to 3 months ago, everyone was looking forward to whether fiscal policy would be strengthened. This is what everyone has seen a lot these days. We expect the central government to increase leverage to resolve local questions...