Xiaomi: After rallying nearly 10%, the real test lies at HK$25.66, with warrant terms already reflecting 'market expectations'

Xiaomi Group-W (01810) $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ delivered a notably strong performance today, closing at HK$25.3, up 9.52%, trading volume RMB 10.14 billion, net inflow from major players was approximately RMB 380 million, volume ratio 1.99。

In today’s tech stock rebound, Xiaomi stands out: it’s not just a platform economy recovery but also carries market expectations around smart hardware, intelligent vehicles, and AI terminals. When such stocks gain momentum, retail investor sentiment typically heats up quickly.

But precisely because of this, product terms can quickly become more expensive.

Technical level: RMB 25.66 is the first resistance

Xiaomi currently has two key support/resistance levels:

– Support:RMB 23.36 / RMB 22.31

– Resistance:RMB 25.66 / 28.29

Closing at RMB 25.3 today, the stock is already approaching its first resistance level at RMB 25.66. If it can hold above RMB 25.66 tomorrow, market attention will naturally shift to the next resistance at RMB 28.29; however, if it fails to break through RMB 25.66, short-term profit-taking could easily occur.

Therefore, Xiaomi’s performance tomorrow isn’t simply about whether the uptrend is strong or not—it’s about this:

After rallying nearly 10%, are there still new buyers willing to take positions above RMB 25?

Risk-reward ratio: Clearly tilted toward upside, but short-term chasing costs shouldn't be ignored

The product overview shows that Xiaomi’s upside risk-reward score is 23.01, while its downside risk-reward score is 3.54, indicating a clearly bullish bias.

This score is driven by three factors: substantial gains, active trading volume, and capital inflows. However, the share price has already rebounded from its lows to approach resistance levels, making the entry/exit points for short-term trades very clear:Whether the price can break through RMB 25.66 will directly affect product selection.

Call warrants: offer leverage but come with relatively high premiums.

The call warrants screened for Xiaomi today include:

– 29708 | Xiaomi UBS Group Jan 2026 Call A

Strike price: RMB 41.28; Leverage: ~7.2x; Implied volatility (IV): ~53.1%; Premium: ~64.6%

– 28114 | Xiaomi Bank of China Jan 2026 Call B

Strike price: RMB 39.08; Leverage: ~8.0x; Implied volatility (IV): ~46.8%; Premium: ~55.7%

– 27270 | Xiaomi Bank of China Oct 2026 Call C

Strike price: RMB 45.88; Leverage: ~7.7x; Implied volatility (IV): ~60.6%; Premium: ~82.1%

The issue with this batch of call warrants is clear: strike prices are generally far out-of-the-money, and premiums are on the high side. They’re not unusable—but they require strong performance from the underlying stock.

If Xiaomi merely trades sideways tomorrow, these call warrants may not offer much advantage; only if Xiaomi breaks above HK$25.66 and moves toward HK$28 will the call warrants exhibit greater leverage potential.

In other words, call warrants are more like 'breakout-following instruments' rather than 'pre-breakout chasing tools.'

Bull certificates: Closer to the underlying stock's price movement rhythm, but you must accept the knock-in distance yourself.

Representative Xiaomi bull certificate products:

– 53415 | Xiaomi BNP Paribas Bull D (June)

Knock-in price at HK$23, approximately 9.09% away, with leverage of around 8.0x

– 54587 | Xiaomi UBS Group Bull L (June B)

Knock-in price at HK$22, approximately 13.04% away, with leverage of around 6.1x

For short-term directional plays, bull certificates are more direct than out-of-the-money call warrants. 53415 offers higher leverage but has a knock-in distance of only about 9.09%; 54587 has a wider buffer and lower leverage, making its price action relatively more stable.

If an investor wants to assess whether Xiaomi can hold the support level at HK$23.36, a bull certificate like 54587—with a more distant knock-in price—better aligns with the strategy of 'waiting for a pullback without a breakdown.' Conversely, if one is betting on short-term acceleration after a breakout above HK$25.66, 53415 offers higher sensitivity but lower tolerance for error.

Key points to watch tomorrow

We will categorize Xiaomi Group as "Both thematic interest and capital inflows are heating up, but valuations are no longer cheap"。

There are three observations for tomorrow:

First,Whether the price can break above HK$25.66. This is the make-or-break level for a short-term rebound to turn into a sustained uptrend.

Second,Whether HK$23.36 can hold as pullback support. If the stock pulls back but still holds this level, it indicates today's rally isn't just a one-day speculative move.

Third,Whether warrant premiums are too high. In the product overview, Xiaomi call warrants generally show elevated premiums, reminding us that even with the right directional view on the underlying stock, the warrant itself may not necessarily deliver strong returns.

In one sentence:

Xiaomi was very strong today, but the real short-term risk-reward opportunity lies not in chasing the rally, but in confirming a breakout above HK$25.66 or a pullback holding support at HK$23.36.

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