Pop Mart is holding near the HK$150 level—when will this sideways pattern break?

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Last traded at HK$151.200, the stock price remains below the 10-day moving average (HK$156.915) and the 20-day moving average (HK$155.435). While it’s still holding above HK$150, short-term rebound momentum is weak. This kind of price action is particularly frustrating—there’s no sharp decline, yet the price can’t break through key resistance levels, leaving the market hesitant to confirm a bottom or re-enter positions.

Comment sentiment reflects that Pop Mart is currently not simply bullish or bearish, but rather stuck in extreme caution and speculative positioning. Among bullish comments, some believe the stock can’t fall much further and now has conditions for an upside move; others think it should hold above HK$150 today and even hope it can be pushed back up to the HK$155–HK$157 range. However, these bullish remarks generally don’t reflect aggressive buying interest, but rather expectations of defensive support at lower levels and a short-term bounce. There isn’t a concentrated consensus that Pop Mart will surge immediately; instead, most just hope the stock stops falling further.

This bullish sentiment aligns with the current technical setup. Pop Mart’s price is very close to the support level at HK$150.200. As long as HK$150.200 holds, there remains a short-term opportunity for a sideways rebound attempt. However, today’s high only reached HK$153.200, still failing to reach the critical zone between HK$155.435 and HK$156.915—let alone break above and stabilize there. In other words, there is buying support near HK$150, but selling pressure persists around HK$156, trapping the stock in a relatively weak sideways range for now.

Bearish comments focused on the continued weakness in direction, with each successive low lower than the last, the monthly chart still in a downtrend, and concerns over whether current positions should be exited. This reflects that investor confidence in Pop Mart’s near-to-medium-term outlook has not yet fully recovered. Even though the stock did not drop sharply today, its price remains below key short-term moving averages, leading the market to interpret any rebound as merely consolidation within a weak trend rather than the start of a new uptrend. Some investors used extreme downside targets to describe potential crashes or sharp declines. While such views cannot be directly confirmed from current technical levels, they do indicate that pessimistic sentiment persists.

Today’s decline occurred on notably low volume, indicating a pullback without significant selling pressure. This suggests that selling pressure hasn’t surged dramatically, but also that the rebound lacks volume support. Simply put, the market isn’t aggressively selling, but there’s also no clear sign of fresh buying interest. This low-volume consolidation presents two possible scenarios for short-term traders: First, if HK$150.200 continues to hold repeatedly and selling pressure gradually diminishes, the stock could test the HK$155.435–HK$156.915 zone again. Second, if volume remains persistently low and the price fails to rise above the mid-Bollinger Band and short-term moving averages, prolonged indecision may erode holders’ patience—and should HK$150.200 break, the next downside target would likely be HK$147.169. At this stage, shrinking volume alone shouldn’t be interpreted as bullish, as low volume can indicate either reduced selling pressure or insufficient buying interest.

Technically, Pop Mart’s most critical first line of defense is HK$150.200. If the stock holds above this level in the short term, it still has room to oscillate and consolidate within the HK$150–HK$156 range. However, if it breaks below HK$150.200, the next support level lies at the lower Bollinger Band at HK$147.169. Should that level also fail, weakness could extend toward HK$137.375—a scenario currently of greatest concern to bears.

Upside resistance is very clear. The immediate short-term resistance is at HK$152.600, followed by the HK$155.435–HK$156.915 zone, which coincides with the 20-day MA, 10-day MA, and the middle Bollinger Band—forming a key pressure area. For Pop Mart to genuinely recover, it must do more than just hold HK$150; it needs to decisively break above this resistance zone. Without surpassing HK$155.435–HK$156.915, any short-term bounce will remain confined within a weak sideways range.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$155.435, the upper band at HK$163.701, and the lower band at HK$147.169. The current price is below the middle band but still above the lower band, indicating the stock isn't in an extremely weak freefall, but rather undergoing a mildly bearish consolidation. This positioning is best approached with a range-trading mindset: support levels lie at HK$150.200 and HK$147.169 below, while resistance is seen between HK$155.435 and HK$156.915 above. Until the price breaks out of this range, being overly bullish or bearish is likely to lead to inaccurate calls.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at approximately 37.702, indicating weak momentum with no clear sign of strengthening. This shows Pop Mart has not yet regained strong upward momentum. Since RSI hasn’t fallen to an extreme oversold level, the current price may not yet offer compelling conditions for a strong bounce; yet it also hasn’t entered bullish territory, meaning upside follow-through remains lacking. Thus, the current risk-reward profile can only be rated as neutral to slightly bearish. Buyers looking to accumulate should first confirm whether HK$150.200 holds firm, while those eyeing a rebound should wait for a confirmed breakout above HK$155.435–HK$156.915.

Comments also included numerous discussions about Chairman Duan, valuation guarantees (‘dui du’), short selling, position unwinding, and new IP launches. These sentiments show that market focus on Pop Mart has shifted beyond just share price—to shareholder dynamics, short-selling pressure, options-related stress, brand dependency, and whether new IPs can successfully take over. Notably, some investors highlighted heavy reliance on LABUBU and uncertainty around new IP performance, signaling that certain participants are moving from short-term speculation toward fundamental concerns. When the stock fails to break above key moving averages, such doubts tend to amplify, discouraging capital from re-entering at higher levels.

Bulls could argue that buying interest has temporarily emerged near HK$150, preventing further deterioration in the downtrend; bears could counter that the price remains below the middle band, showing no short-term signs of strengthening. Both sides have valid points, but technical levels provide a clear answer: if HK$150.200 holds, sideways recovery can continue; only a breakout above HK$155.435–HK$156.915 would signal genuine improvement; and if HK$150.200 is breached, the next test will be at HK$147.169.

In terms of short-term strategy, excessive aggression in trading Pop Mart is unwarranted at this stage. If the price holds above HK$150.200 and then breaks back above HK$155.435–HK$156.915, the setup for technical recovery will emerge, with potential upside toward HK$163.701. Conversely, if it breaks below HK$150.200, the next support level is HK$147.169; a further breakdown could extend weakness toward HK$137.375. For retail investors, the biggest risk now is emotionally chasing prices up or down within the HK$150–HK$156 range—precisely the indecisive, grinding zone where short-term direction remains unclear.

Overall, Pop Mart is trading in a low-volume, mildly weak sideways pattern. Holding above HK$150 suggests the short-term trend hasn’t fully deteriorated; however, the inability to rise above HK$155.435–HK$156.915 indicates the rebound remains unconfirmed. The risk-reward profile is neutral to slightly unfavorable, making observation preferable to aggressive chasing. Only two meaningful signals exist: either holding above HK$150.200 and then breaking through around HK$156, or breaking below HK$150.200 and testing HK$147.169. Until one of these scenarios unfolds, Pop Mart will likely remain in a weak consolidation phase.

Key deployment considerations: In the short term, watch HK$150.200 as initial support—if held, wait for a bounce and recovery. A move above HK$155.435–HK$156.915 would create conditions to test HK$163.701. Conversely, if HK$150.200 is broken, the first target is HK$147.169; a further breach could extend weakness toward approximately HK$137.375.

Strategy 1 | Go long after holding HK$150, waiting for a breakout above HK$155.435–HK$156.915 to confirm recovery

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike Price: HK$186.88 | Effective Leverage: 4.7x | Better suited for deployment after the stock re-stabilizes above the middle band, following the trend. While not offering the highest elasticity, the strike price isn’t excessively aggressive relative to the current price, making it suitable as an initial observation position.

$CTPOMRT@EC2609D.C (28018.HK)$ | Strike Price: HK$186.78 | Effective Leverage: 5.6x | Higher leverage—ideal for chasing a rebound after the price breaks above HK$156.915 to capture short-term acceleration. Avoid heavy positioning before such a breakout occurs.

$HSPOMRT@EC2609B.C (27794.HK)$ | Strike Price: HK$189.92 | Effective Leverage: 5.5x | Slightly higher strike price—suited for more advanced rebounds after confirmation of a breakout. This is a momentum-chasing instrument, best used when trading volume shows improvement.

Strategy 2 | Turn bearish after a break below HK$150.200, targeting HK$147.169 first, then HK$137.375

$UBPOMRT@EP2610A.P (28116.HK)$ | Strike Price: HK$138.88 | Effective Leverage: 3.4x | Strike price close to the next deeper support zone—ideal for顺势 (following-the-trend) bearish plays after a break below HK$150.200. Offers moderate elasticity and is better suited for holding positions as the downtrend extends.

$HSPOMRT@EP2610A.P (28303.HK)$ | Strike price HK$138.78 | Effective leverage 3.7x | Corresponds to the risk zone near HK$137; slightly higher leverage, suitable for reinforcing bearish positions if the stock briefly breaks below HK$147.169.

$GJPOMRT@EP2609B.P (28043.HK)$ | Strike price HK$116.78 | Effective leverage 4.8x | Strike price is farther away with higher flexibility; suitable when the stock clearly breaks below HK$147.169 and shows accelerated downside momentum—not appropriate for minor pullback strategies.

Strategy 3 | Rebound capped between HK$155.435 and HK$156.915; favoring bearish positioning from elevated levels

$UBPOMRT@EP2607A.P (22558.HK)$ | Strike price HK$162.82 | Effective leverage 4.3x | Strike price above current market price; suited for positioning after a failed rebound, particularly effective for intraday bearish plays if the stock fails to reclaim short-term moving averages.

$UBPOMRT@EP2607B.P (23059.HK)$ | Strike price HK$169.892 | Effective leverage 3.9x | Higher strike price offers stronger downside protection; ideal for capturing renewed weakness following a sideways consolidation near HK$155–HK$157 without an upside breakout.

$UBPOMRT@EP2609A.P (25399.HK)$ | Strike price HK$179.9 | Effective leverage 2.6x | Lower leverage makes it more suitable for conservative bearish positioning—deployed when rallies lack strength but a sharp drop hasn’t yet been confirmed, offering relatively better resilience to volatility.

Investor Comment Replies

@233430073: Changes involving Chairman Duan and shareholders may affect market sentiment, but in the short term, attention remains on whether HK$150.200 holds and if the price can break above the HK$156 level.

@跟庄家斗法: If one believes the price will ultimately decline, technical confirmation of a bearish outlook would require a break below HK$150.200.

@17627678: The HK$157 area represents a key resistance zone; if the price pushes up only to fall back to HK$151, it indicates persistent selling pressure overhead.

@233430073: In a gradual decline, the first level to watch is HK$150.200; only after a break below that should attention shift to HK$147.169.

@山野农夫If going short, note that if the price holds above RMB 150.200, the stock may still rebound; if it breaks below that level, the bears will have the advantage.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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