May 19 [HK Stock Podcast] Part 2 – CNOOC, Alibaba, Xi Yu

4. After holding support at HK$26.62, CNOOC rebounded; the HK$30 target still requires first breaking through the resistance at HK$29.59

CNOOC closed at HK$27.560, up HK$0.800 or 2.99%. The share price rebounded from today's low of HK$26.620, reaching a high of HK$27.560 and closing near the session’s peak, indicating improved short-term buying support. Investors believe that as long as the stock holds above the HK$26.62 support level, it has the potential to reverse and rally toward HK$30. This view carries some technical merit, as HK$26.62 was today’s low and aligns closely with the recent sideways support zone; maintaining this level would allow the short-term rebound structure to persist.

Technically, the current price of HK$27.560 has broken above the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$26.814, the 20-day MA at HK$27.527, and the 30-day MA at HK$27.211, placing it back above key short-term MAs and showing clear improvement compared to its earlier consolidation around HK$26. The Bollinger Bands’ midline sits at HK$27.527, with the upper band at HK$29.596 and the lower band at HK$25.458. The current price has just moved back above the midline, suggesting the stock has tentatively exited the weak zone below, though it has not yet entered a definitive strong breakout phase. In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI is around 62.101, while the medium-term RSIs are approximately 53.150 and 52.424—indicating relatively strong momentum but not extreme overbought conditions.

In terms of trading volume, today’s turnover was approximately HK$2.938 billion, slightly higher than recent days, though no significant surge in volume was observed. The share price has broken above multiple short-term moving averages, accompanied by a modest pickup in volume, reflecting decent support behind the rebound. However, to confirm a trend reversal toward the HK$30 target, stronger follow-through volume will be needed—particularly when breaking above HK$28, where volume must not contract.

Investors have mentioned a target of HK$30, but this still needs to be viewed in two steps. The first step is whether the stock can hold steady above the Bollinger Bands middle band near HK$27.527, as today’s price has just moved back above this level. If it falls below HK$27.5 again tomorrow, the rebound momentum would be weakened. The second step is the upper Bollinger Band at HK$29.596, which represents the key resistance before challenging HK$30. Only if the price breaks above HK$29.596 and stabilizes there will HK$30 become a more realistic short-term target.

For investors holding bull certificates with a call price of HK$24, the current price of HK$27.560 still offers a reasonable buffer above HK$24, so short-term risk is not as urgent as for at-the-money bull certificates. However, bull certificate positioning should still monitor changes in support levels. If the stock holds above HK$26.62, the bull certificate position can still align with a rebound strategy; if it breaks below HK$26.62, the next support level would be near the lower Bollinger Band at HK$25.458, at which point the trend would turn weaker again and risk for bull certificate holders would increase.

Overall, the short-term pivot point for CNOOC is around HK$27.5. If the price stabilizes above HK$27.527, the technical structure has room to continue recovering, with the next resistance at HK$29.596, followed by HK$30. If it falls back below HK$27.5, the rebound lacks confirmation; if it further breaks below HK$26.62, the short-term outlook would turn bearish again. At this stage, the risk-reward ratio is moderately favorable, but HK$30 remains an unconfirmed target—it must first break through the upper Bollinger Band resistance at HK$29.596 for the rebound pattern to appear more complete.

5. Alibaba remains in a consolidation range near HK$133; the HK$160 target requires first breaking through the resistance at HK$139.95.

Alibaba closed at HK$133.300, up HK$1.600 or 1.21%. The stock traded between a low of HK$130.500 and a high of HK$135.300 today, closing back near HK$133. There is a short-term rebound, though momentum remains modest. The current price is above the 20-day moving average (MA) at HK$132.775 and the 30-day MA at HK$131.147, but still below the 10-day MA at HK$134.930, indicating the price is consolidating around these moving averages without yet forming a clear upward breakout.

Technically, Alibaba remains in a sideways consolidation pattern following its recent low-level rebound. The Bollinger Bands middle band is at HK$132.775, with the upper band at HK$139.947 and the lower band at HK$125.603. The current price is slightly above the middle band but still some distance from the upper band. A short-term confirmation of improved rebound strength would require the price to stabilize above HK$133 and break through the 10-day MA at HK$134.930. If it fails to surpass HK$134.930, the stock may continue fluctuating between HK$132 and HK$135.

On the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI is approximately 49.386, while the medium-term RSIs are around 51.001 and 49.662—collectively indicating a neutral reading, showing neither significant overbought conditions nor strong bullish momentum. In terms of volume, turnover was about HK$10.148 billion, which is not particularly high, reflecting a market in温和 recovery rather than a strong breakout.

Some investors believe that after the Qwen launch event in the next couple of days, the stock price will reach HK$160. This is an aggressive upside target. From the current technical standpoint, HK$160 is not a confirmed short-term objective. The price must first break above HK$134.930, then challenge the upper Bollinger Band at HK$139.947. Only after breaking and stabilizing above HK$139.947 would the rebound structure significantly improve, allowing for further observation of potential moves toward higher levels. If the price remains capped near HK$135, HK$160 should currently be viewed only as sentiment-driven expectation, not yet confirmed by technical patterns.

For investors holding bull certificates with a call price of HK$120, the current price of HK$133.300 provides a comfortable buffer above HK$120, so short-term risk is not immediate. However, bull certificate positioning should still watch key support levels below. If the stock falls below HK$132.775 and HK$131.147, the trend would weaken again; if it further breaks below HK$130.500, the short-term price could test the lower Bollinger Band near HK$125.603, at which point bull certificate risk would rise significantly.

Overall, Alibaba’s short-term pivot zone lies near HK$134.930–HK$135.300. Only if the price breaks above and stabilizes in this range can the rebound extend toward HK$139.947; a breakout above HK$139.947 would further open upside potential. Near-term support levels are at HK$132.775 and HK$130.500, with stronger support down at HK$125.603. At this stage, the risk-reward ratio is neutral. Bull certificate holders may continue monitoring the rebound, but HK$160 should not yet be treated as a confirmed target—the immediate focus should remain on whether the price can sequentially break through HK$135 and then HK$139.947.

6. MINIMAX-W would need to fall back to around HK$720 for a more favorable risk-reward ratio, but a trend reversal to strength has not yet been confirmed.

MINIMAX-W closed at HK$742.500, down HK$57.500 or 7.19%. The share price declined significantly today, with an intraday high of HK$783.500 and a low of HK$725.000. Although the closing price remained above the HK$720 level, the short-term rebound momentum has clearly weakened. From the daily chart perspective, the stock previously surged from a low of HK$220 to a peak of HK$1,330, after which it entered a pullback and consolidation phase. The medium- to short-term downtrend has not yet reversed.

Technically, the current price of HK$742.500 is below the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$779.750, the 20-day MA at HK$787.000, and the 30-day MA at HK$837.133, indicating continued short-term pressure from multiple moving averages. The Bollinger Bands’ middle band sits at HK$787.000, with the upper band at HK$911.253 and the lower band at HK$662.747. The current price is below the middle band but still above the lower band, suggesting the stock remains in a weak consolidation range without having reached an extreme oversold level. In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI is approximately 40.931, while the medium-term RSIs are around 43.455 and 46.718, reflecting weak momentum and no clear signs of strengthening yet.

Regarding trading volume, today’s turnover was approximately HK$613 million. Volume did not show a significant surge, and combined with the price decline, this indicates selling pressure exists but has not escalated into panic-driven heavy selling. For short-term conditions to improve, the stock would need to first reclaim the HK$780–HK$787 range and close back above both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages to form a more convincing rebound structure.

An investor asked whether it would be suitable to buy back the stock if it falls to HK$720. Based on the current chart pattern, the HK$720 level can be viewed as a short-term observation point, as today’s low of HK$725 already approached that level. If the price pulls back to around HK$720 and holds firm, a technical rebound could indeed occur. However, HK$720 is not the clearest strong support level on the chart—the lower Bollinger Band lies at HK$662.747, indicating further downside potential if HK$720 is breached.

Therefore, the HK$720 area may be considered as a position for scaled-in monitoring, but it should not be treated as a guaranteed rebound level. A more conservative approach would be to first observe whether the price stabilizes near HK$720 and then watch if it can move back above HK$742.50. A breakout above the HK$780–HK$787 zone would signal renewed short-term buying strength. Conversely, if the price breaks below HK$720 and fails to quickly recover, the downtrend will likely persist, with the next support level around HK$662.747.

Overall, the short-term pivot zone for MINIMAX-W lies around HK$780–HK$787. Until the stock reclaims this range, it remains in a weak consolidation phase. A pullback to around HK$720 that holds steady could offer a favorable risk-reward setup for a short-term bounce, but positions should remain light or scaled in. At this stage, the risk-reward ratio is neutral to slightly unfavorable. The key isn’t merely watching the HK$720 level itself, but rather observing whether the price stabilizes near HK$720 and subsequently reclaims above HK$780.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should combine other information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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