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港股窩輪Jenny
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Ganfeng Lithium's downtrend continues but voices of bargain hunting are emerging again, with 75 yuan becoming the key short-term watershed

$GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$
Recent market sentiment has been highly conflicted. On one hand, some investors believe that stock prices have entered an oversold rebound phase, and after the bull certificates are redeemed, selling pressure may be released, creating conditions for a short-term rebound. On the other hand, the downward trend hasn't shown any clear signs of stopping, causing many investors to question whether they should continue holding their positions, or even worry about the next stop potentially dropping to $70 or $66.
$GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$ Recent market sentiment has been highly conflicted. On one hand, some investors believe that stock prices have entered an oversold rebound phase, and after the bull certificates are redeemed, selling pressure may be released, creating conditions for a short-term rebound. On the other hand, the downward trend hasn't shown any clear signs of stopping, causing many investors to question whether they should continue holding their positions, or even worry about the next stop potentially dropping to $70 or $66. Ganfeng Lithium closed at $77.10 yesterday (May 14), with an RSI of approximately 46, indicating a "neutral" technical signal, within a moderately weak range. Compared to peers in the resources and new energy sectors, $TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK)$ the closing price was $57.45; the 'two lithium giants' (Ganfeng and Tianqi) are in a phase of 'weak oscillation, searching for a bottom.' Whether Ganfeng can hold above $75 depends not only on its own support but also on observing if Tianqi Lithium will experience further declines. If Tianqi stabilizes, it would help limit the depth of Ganfeng's pullback. The core logic of the bullish side mainly focuses on three points. The first is the short-term trading logic of 'rebound after forced liquidation.' Some investors believe that after the bull contracts near 82, 78, and 76 have been fully liquidated, market pressure has been released, providing conditions for the stock price to rebound upwards, with some even speculating a rebound toward 100 yuan. The second point is sector comparison. Some investors mentioned that CATL has already strengthened, leading them to believe that lithium-related stocks should not lag behind for long, and Ganfeng Lithium and similar stocks may have the opportunity to catch up. The third point is long-term conviction. Some investors explicitly stated they would firmly hold and increase their positions, reflecting...
Ganfeng Lithium closed at $77.10 yesterday (May 14), with an RSI of approximately 46, indicating a "neutral" technical signal, within a moderately weak range. Compared to peers in the resources and new energy sectors, $TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK)$ the closing price was $57.45; the 'two lithium giants' (Ganfeng and Tianqi) are in a phase of 'weak oscillation, searching for a bottom.' Whether Ganfeng can hold above $75 depends not only on its own support but also on observing if Tianqi Lithium will experience further declines. If Tianqi stabilizes, it would help limit the depth of Ganfeng's pullback.
$GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$ Recent market sentiment has been highly conflicted. On one hand, some investors believe that stock prices have entered an oversold rebound phase, and after the bull certificates are redeemed, selling pressure may be released, creating conditions for a short-term rebound. On the other hand, the downward trend hasn't shown any clear signs of stopping, causing many investors to question whether they should continue holding their positions, or even worry about the next stop potentially dropping to $70 or $66. Ganfeng Lithium closed at $77.10 yesterday (May 14), with an RSI of approximately 46, indicating a "neutral" technical signal, within a moderately weak range. Compared to peers in the resources and new energy sectors, $TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK)$ the closing price was $57.45; the 'two lithium giants' (Ganfeng and Tianqi) are in a phase of 'weak oscillation, searching for a bottom.' Whether Ganfeng can hold above $75 depends not only on its own support but also on observing if Tianqi Lithium will experience further declines. If Tianqi stabilizes, it would help limit the depth of Ganfeng's pullback. The core logic of the bullish side mainly focuses on three points. The first is the short-term trading logic of 'rebound after forced liquidation.' Some investors believe that after the bull contracts near 82, 78, and 76 have been fully liquidated, market pressure has been released, providing conditions for the stock price to rebound upwards, with some even speculating a rebound toward 100 yuan. The second point is sector comparison. Some investors mentioned that CATL has already strengthened, leading them to believe that lithium-related stocks should not lag behind for long, and Ganfeng Lithium and similar stocks may have the opportunity to catch up. The third point is long-term conviction. Some investors explicitly stated they would firmly hold and increase their positions, reflecting...
The core logic of the bullish side mainly focuses on three points. First, is the short-term trading logic of a 'rebound after bull contract recall.' Some investors believe that after bull contracts near 82, 78, and 76 are recalled, market pressure will be released, giving the stock room to rebound upward, with some even imagining a rebound towards 100 yuan. Second, is sector comparison. Some investors mentioned that CATL has strengthened, so they believe lithium-related stocks should not lag behind for long, suggesting that Ganfeng Lithium and similar stocks may catch up. Third, is long-term conviction. Some investors clearly stated their intention to hold firmly and add positions, reflecting that some capital still believes lithium stocks have mid-to-long term recovery potential at lower levels.
However, bearish voices are equally strong, with more focus on the trend itself. The market's biggest concern is that the stock price keeps hitting new lows, remaining weak even when the broader market rises, indicating that funds have not significantly returned. Some investors directly pointed out that if 75 yuan cannot hold, the next support level might drop to 66 yuan; others think this wave of decline could reach 70 yuan. Such comments reflect that the market is not just short-term disappointed but is starting to reassess support levels and risk ranges downward.
More importantly, some investors have started expressing doubts that a rebound might be a chance for distribution. Some comments describe it as merely a 'don't leave, fellow countrymen-style rebound,' while others think chasing higher prices could lead to being 'stuck' or becoming a 'falling knife catcher.' This suggests that even if there is a short-term rebound in stock price, the market might not immediately regain confidence, instead choosing to first observe whether the rebound has sufficient trading volume and sustained support. If the rebound lacks strength, investors may be more inclined to reduce positions during the bounce rather than re-entering.
In terms of观望 sentiment, the most common questions in the market are 'Should I sell?', 'Can I add more positions?', and 'Will there be a V-shaped rebound today?'. Some investors who just bought at 84 yuan encountered a pullback, while others mentioned they have already added to their positions or made small试探性 purchases, indicating that there is still capital trying to抄底, but confidence remains unstable. Another portion of the comments reveals clear fatigue, such as 'Falling every day', 'Did I buy fake stocks?', 'It’s over again'. These emotions suggest that shareholders are gradually losing patience with stock performance.
From a short-term structural perspective, 75 yuan is currently the most important psychological and technical分水岭. If the stock price can hold above 75 yuan and show a more significant rebound, the market might start炒作超跌修复 again, first seeing whether it can rise back above 80 yuan, then gradually修复 to higher levels. If 75 yuan is breached, discussions about 70 yuan or even 66 yuan will intensify, further confirming a weak structure at that point.
The 100-yuan mark represents a more aggressive反弹 target and is not a position that can be immediately confirmed in the short term. To discuss 100 yuan again, the prerequisite is that the stock price must first stop falling and then return above 80 to 84 yuan, making the market believe this isn't just a one-day反弹 but rather板块资金重新流入. Otherwise, anticipating 100 yuan too early could easily overlook downside risks before the pattern of lower lows is reversed.
Overall, Ganfeng Lithium (赣锋锂业) does not lack conditions for a反弹 at present, but confirmation of the反弹 is still needed. The bulls are betting on超跌, release of selling pressure after a big drop, and补涨 in the lithium mining sector; the bears are concerned about continued weakness in trends, capital outflows, and an extended decline if 75 yuan is lost. The most reasonable short-term observation points are whether 75 yuan can be defended and whether the rebound can reclaim levels above 80 yuan. Until confirmed,抄底 remains a high-risk operation; once strength is confirmed, the conditions will be in place for the超跌反弹 to turn into a true修复行情.
Latest update (May 15 morning):
Ganfeng Lithium is currently trading at $76.60, down approximately 0.65% for now. This shows that the stock price is still struggling at the edge of the $75 to $77 range, without showing significant rebound momentum. In the short term, close attention must be paid to whether it can stabilize around $75 to avoid further testing of support levels at $70 or even $66.
Reply to some investors' views:
@托塔天王李靖: Just bought another lot
Current position testing is possible, but the support level below should not be ignored.
@26896746： $CATL (03750.HK)$ The signal has turned upward; the two golden flowers of the lithium mining sector will soon bloom. Hold on and don't get shaken out.
If the lithium mining sector follows with a strengthening trend, rebound potential will open up, but confirmation of capital inflow is still required.
@天台看股Does it need to adjust again?
If the 75 yuan level cannot be held, the risk of adjustment will remain.
Based on the above analysis, the strategies for deployment can be divided into the following main approaches:
$GJGANFE@EC2607A.C (25369.HK)$$BPGANFE@EC2607A.C (25346.HK)$
$SG#GANFERC2612A.C (56399.HK)$$UB#GANFERC2609C.C (56714.HK)$
$GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$ Recent market sentiment has been highly conflicted. On one hand, some investors believe that stock prices have entered an oversold rebound phase, and after the bull certificates are redeemed, selling pressure may be released, creating conditions for a short-term rebound. On the other hand, the downward trend hasn't shown any clear signs of stopping, causing many investors to question whether they should continue holding their positions, or even worry about the next stop potentially dropping to $70 or $66. Ganfeng Lithium closed at $77.10 yesterday (May 14), with an RSI of approximately 46, indicating a "neutral" technical signal, within a moderately weak range. Compared to peers in the resources and new energy sectors, $TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK)$ the closing price was $57.45; the 'two lithium giants' (Ganfeng and Tianqi) are in a phase of 'weak oscillation, searching for a bottom.' Whether Ganfeng can hold above $75 depends not only on its own support but also on observing if Tianqi Lithium will experience further declines. If Tianqi stabilizes, it would help limit the depth of Ganfeng's pullback. The core logic of the bullish side mainly focuses on three points. The first is the short-term trading logic of 'rebound after forced liquidation.' Some investors believe that after the bull contracts near 82, 78, and 76 have been fully liquidated, market pressure has been released, providing conditions for the stock price to rebound upwards, with some even speculating a rebound toward 100 yuan. The second point is sector comparison. Some investors mentioned that CATL has already strengthened, leading them to believe that lithium-related stocks should not lag behind for long, and Ganfeng Lithium and similar stocks may have the opportunity to catch up. The third point is long-term conviction. Some investors explicitly stated they would firmly hold and increase their positions, reflecting...
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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HongKongStocks #GanfengLithium #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantPicks #WarrantStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HKStocksWarrantsJenny #BlueChipStocks #TechnicalAnalysis
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