Wall Street Brief (May 15): US stocks hit new highs again on Thursday, confidence in AI infrastructure strengthens, market risk appetite continues to recover; the focus expands beyond tech heavyweights; cybersecurity and crypto concepts gain strength

Summary: US stocks continued to rise on Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 0.77%, Nasdaq up 0.88%, Dow Jones up 0.75%, and Russell 2000 up 0.67%. The S&P and Nasdaq hit consecutive new highs, with broader index-level gains more balanced than the previous day, expanding from a few tech heavyweights to broader index components, while the Dow returned above 50,000 points; the VIX dropped to 17.26, down 3.41% in a single day, as market risk appetite continued to recover. The day’s rally was not limited to chip stocks, as heavyweight tech, AI infrastructure, and enterprise software collectively supported the market. Cisco raised its forecast for AI-related orders, while the US approved some Chinese companies to purchase NVIDIA's H200, both reinforcing market confidence in AI infrastructure. Economic data did not interrupt this narrative, as retail sales and initial jobless claims still pointed to moderate resilience. In terms of performance, heavyweight tech, cybersecurity, software, and cloud computing stood out, while Chinese stocks saw noticeable declines; in major asset classes, the US dollar index rose by 0.38%, gold fell by 0.82%, crude oil increased by 1.10%, and Bitcoin surged by 2.55%.

I. Major Events

1. US consumer spending and employment data show resilience

US retail sales in April grew 0.5% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive monthly increase but slowing compared to March; initial jobless claims during the same period rose to 211,000, still within a relatively stable range. Consumer spending and employment showed no significant loss of momentum, nor were they strong enough to reignite tightening concerns. This left a comfortable macro backdrop for the stock market. Corporate earnings and AI investment can continue to dominate the narrative, with economic data temporarily not interrupting risk appetite. On Thursday, all four major indices rose simultaneously, with small-cap stocks also recovering, indicating reduced investor concern about growth prospects.

2. Cisco significantly raises AI order forecast

Cisco reported third-quarter revenue of $15.8 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12%, and its stock surged 13.41%. The company stated it had received $5.3 billion in AI infrastructure orders year-to-date and raised its FY26 related order forecast from $5 billion to $9 billion. Market attention is not just on a single company's performance but rather the extension of AI capital expenditure from chips to networking equipment, enterprise connectivity, and data center infrastructure. This gave Thursday’s tech rally more depth. Funds did not solely chase semiconductors but redistributed across heavyweight tech, software, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and infrastructure chains. AI trading continues, but investors are increasingly focused on whether demand can translate into revenue across more segments.

3. H200 export licenses to China stir expectations

According to a Reuters report, the US has approved approximately 10 Chinese companies to purchase NVIDIA's H200 chips, but related deliveries have not yet begun. This development brings US-China technology negotiations, export permits, and overseas computing power demand back into alignment. This is not simply a "chip boon." What the market is truly assessing is whether AI hardware, cloud services, and overseas demand can continue to expand the revenue space for large tech companies. NVIDIA (NVDA) rose by 4.39%, but the semiconductor index (SMH) increased by only 1.03%, showing less elasticity compared to cybersecurity (CIBR), software (IGV), and cloud computing (SKYY). Capital flows are not solely focused on the chip sector.

II. Major Trends

On the index level, Thursday’s gains were more balanced than the previous day. The S&P 500 rose by 0.77%, Nasdaq increased by 0.88%, Dow Jones gained 0.75%, and Russell 2000 climbed by 0.67%. SPY rose by 0.79%, while IWM increased by 0.63%. The market was not driven solely by Nasdaq; risk appetite has spread from a few tech-heavy stocks to a broader range of indices.

Over an extended period, technology and large-cap stocks remain central. In a two-week timeframe, QQQ surged by 7.79%, continuing to outperform SPY at 4.11%, IWM at 3.73%, and DIA at 1.50%. Over a three-month horizon, QQQ jumped by 19.73%, whereas DIA rose by only 1.50%. During the same period, SPY increased by 10.04%, while RSP gained just 0.82%. The strength in market-capitalization-weighted indices still primarily comes from leading companies.

The style structure has not fundamentally reversed. Over three months, SPYG rose by 16.92%, significantly higher than SPYV’s 2.62%. MAGS climbed by 16.01%, surpassing XMAG’s 5.55%. Growth and large-scale tech still dominate the market, but incremental capital on Thursday began flowing more towards AI infrastructure, software, cloud computing, and cybersecurity sectors.

III. Market Sentiment

The VIX closed at 17.26, down 3.41% on the day, corroborating the synchronized rise of the four major indices. This level indicates that the market has clearly moved away from its prior state of tension but is not low enough to signal extreme optimism. Risk appetite is recovering, hedging needs are declining, and investors are maintaining some caution against index volatility. The CNN Fear & Greed Index rose to 66 from a previous value of 64, remaining in a slightly greedy range. Sentiment is shifting toward a more offensive stance, though the upward move is moderate, reflecting re-pricing driven by earnings and AI-related demand rather than indiscriminate chasing of gains.

In terms of CBOE Put/Call ratios, the total Put/Call ratio was 0.64, with the index options Put/Call ratio at 1.01 and equity options Put/Call ratio at 0.50. Equity options leaned strongly bullish, with strong risk-taking at the individual stock level. Index options retained some protection, indicating institutional funds were participating in the rally without fully removing portfolio-level defenses. Overall, risk appetite is warming, but protective awareness remains intact.

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs:All index ETFs rose, with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gaining 0.79%, the strongest performer, and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rising 0.63%, relatively lagging. The gap between them was not significant, indicating Thursday was not a typical case of “only large-cap tech rising while other indices fall behind.” However, over two weeks and three months, QQQ still leads significantly, suggesting the mid-term market focus remains on growth and technology-heavy sectors.

2. Industry sectors:Sector-wise, technology (XLK) led with a 1.50% gain, followed by energy (XLE) with 0.76% and finance (XLF) with 0.59%; materials (XLB) fell 0.75%, lagging behind. Technology regained its strongest position, but energy and finance also rose, showing capital did not entirely concentrate in a single growth direction. Among sub-sectors, cybersecurity (CIBR) surged by 3.31%, software (IGV) rose by 2.30%, and cloud computing (SKYY) increased by 1.97%, all outperforming technology (XLK); semiconductors (SMH) rose by 1.03%, not the strongest segment. This structure aligns more closely with “large-cap tech and AI infrastructure expansion” rather than “chip-only dominance.” Resource chains showed clear divergence, with copper mining (COPX) falling by 2.75%, gold mining (GDX) dropping by 2.37%, and gold weakness weighing on precious metals-related areas.

3. Seven major tech companies:Within the seven major tech stocks, support remained uneven. NVIDIA (NVDA) led with a 4.39% increase, Microsoft (MSFT) rose by 1.04%, and the seven major tech ETF (MAGS) gained 0.65%; Netflix fell by 0.71%, lagging behind. The key signal on Thursday was that large-cap tech continued to support the index while AI infrastructure-related sectors started gaining traction, but not all mega-cap tech stocks advanced in sync.

4. Chinese concept stocks:Chinese concept stocks saw significant pullbacks. Bilibili BILI fell 9.04%, Baidu BIDU dropped 4.79%, the China Internet ETF KWEB declined 4.54%, PDD Holdings PDD decreased by 4.04%, Alibaba BABA fell 3.22%, and JD.com JD dropped 2.69%. The previous day's revaluation rally in Chinese technology stocks did not continue, as investors preferred to cash in gains rather than further expand their risk exposure.

5. Cryptocurrencies:Bitcoin rose 2.55%, driving strength in some highly elastic correlated assets. MicroStrategy MSTR increased by 5.02%, Robinhood HOOD climbed 5.15%, and MARA rose 4.24%; Circle CRCL fell 2.13%. Capital flows favored directions related to Bitcoin price elasticity and trading activity, with no synchronized expansion along the stablecoin chain. The cryptocurrency sector still enjoys support from risk appetite, but internal choices have clearly diverged.

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$$State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$$iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$$Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$$USD (USDindex.FX)$$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$Bitcoin (BTC.CC) Ethereum (ETH.CC)$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$$Tesla (TSLA.US)$$Meta Platforms (META.US)$$Amazon (AMZN.US)$$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$$Apple (AAPL.US)$

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